breadcrumb

Dirty Air and Succession Jitters Clouding Beijing’s Judgment

Last week the Chinese government accused the U.S. Embassy and consulates of illegally interfering in China’s domestic affairs by publishing online hourly air-quality information collected from their own monitoring equipment. (While the critiques didn’t name the U.S., the U.S. Embassy is the only foreign embassy reporting air quality information.)

Going public with an anti-foreign attack about local air pollution is just asking for ridicule from the increasingly skeptical Chinese public. Netizens responded accordingly. “Why does reading the domestic news feel like reading a bunch of jokes?” asked one commentator. “Do you think people are blind? How many blue-sky days has Beijing had lately? Do you think ordinary people will only believe your own statements?” grumbled another.

This self-defeating action is symptomatic of a panicky leadership with a severe credibility problem. China’s leaders are floundering in their efforts to prevent any more unscripted events like the Bo Xilai or Chen Guangcheng affairs from interfering with the leadership succession scheduled for the fall of 2012.

Chief among their concerns is social unrest that could turn against them and threaten the survival of Communist Party rule. When issues of public concern like tainted food and medicine or environmental pollution agitate the increasingly vocal urban middle class to complain or petition over the Internet, China’s leaders usually try to solve the underlying problem promptly and show the public that they are looking out for its welfare. They seem to have learned a lesson from the SARS epidemic in 2003 that suppressing information about a public health threat instead of addressing it head-on will only backfire.

Another strategy for maintaining popular support is to play to nationalism to show that, under the leadership of the Communist Party, China has become a strong nation that takes no guff, even from powerful countries like the United States. These two strategies—responding to public outcry by trying to fix problems and stoking nationalism—have strengthened what political scientist Andrew Nathan calls China's "authoritarian resilience," and staved off popular revolution.

But to come out swinging against the United States for Tweeting air pollution readings deviates from this pattern. It's one thing to posture against what Party officials often call "hostile foreign forces,” when the matter under discussion is remote from the everyday concerns of Chinese citizens. But when the issue is the thick haze that hangs over China’s growing cities, harming the health of their residents, condemning U.S. diplomats for providing air pollution information is only going to further alienate the public.

Another thing that makes the criticism of the U.S. Embassy so odd is that the U.S. Embassy has been reporting such information in Beijing since 2008. It started monitoring and posting air quality to advise its staff and other American expats about when it was unsafe to jog, bike, and engage in other out-door activities. Diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks reveal that Chinese officials privately lodged protests with the U.S. Embassy over the practice as early as 2009.

Then in early January 2012, when disparities between the information reported by the U.S. Embassy and by the Beijing municipal government during a number of weeks of particularly bad air quality aroused public outcry, the government responded agilely. After Premier Wen Jiabao said that air quality reporting should reflect public perceptions, authorities adopted more stringent air quality standards and began monitoring harmful particulates like PM 2.5 (particulate matter measuring less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers in diameter).

But realizing concrete improvements in urban air quality will take time. Announcing new standards was only a temporary solution to the leadership’s public opinion problem. At present two-thirds of Chinese cities cannot meet China’s own PM 2.5 standard. China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection has installed monitoring stations in 113 key cities that send data automatically to the national headquarters in Beijing and plans to install more. Nevertheless, the public still suspects that the air reports in local newspapers and TV broadcasts are manipulated by local authorities. Residents of major cities need only look out the window, take a deep breath, and wonder how these reports can claim that the air is only “lightly polluted.” Poor air quality days similar to those that stirred up the public last January will almost certainly occur again.

This latest episode began June 1 in Shanghai when the director of the environmental protection bureau, while announcing that the city had begun to monitor and report PM 2.5 readings, complained that the U.S. consulate, which had gotten the jump on municipal authorities by beginning to issue its own readings in May, was breaking domestic regulations that require monitoring from multiple locations. The Shanghai CCP Secretary, Yu Zhengsheng, who as a Politburo member has considerable clout in Beijing, may have had a hand in pressing for a statement from central officials. Then on June 5, at a special Earth Day press conference, the Vice Minister of the Ministry of Environmental Protection escalated the complaint by accusing foreign diplomatic missions of violating international law by interfering in domestic functions. This critique had clearly been coordinated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which echoed it the following day. Whether or not some higher authorities blessed this blunder is unclear.

Certainly, Chinese government officials resent the fact that urban residents have more faith in reports from the U.S. missions than they do in those from Chinese municipal governments. But lashing out at America only highlighted their inability to clean up China’s air and further eroded their credibility with the Chinese public.

New information technologies, moreover, create additional challenges to official pronouncements. IPhone users in China can cheaply download an application that displays air quality readings from their local government and the U.S. Embassy side by side. Prominent users of Weibo (China’s hybrid version of Twitter and Facebook) like Pan Shiyi, a real estate billionaire with more than 10 million followers, regularly repost air quality information from such applications on their Weibo accounts.

Obviously, the Chinese government’s attack on U.S. diplomats was not just about air pollution. China’s leaders’ anxiety about their political legitimacy has been heightened by the recent high-profile flights to safe haven in U.S. diplomatic missions of Chongqing security chief, Wang Lijun, and rights-defender Chen Guangcheng. When the propaganda authorities ordered Beijing newspapers to attack popular U.S. Ambassador Gary Locke in May, netizens objected and one of the papers sent an online apology to its readers. These incidents revealed the esteem in which many Chinese hold American diplomats.

Chinese leaders fear that somehow Americans might yet find more ways to make trouble in the lead-up to the leadership turnover at the upcoming Communist Party Congress. This fear is causing them to lose their footing and is worrisome for a number of reasons: It’s not just that Chinese leaders are willing to harm U.S.-China relations in order to bolster their domestic standing. It’s also that their actions are counterproductive in domestic political terms. If they can do something this clumsy with regard to air pollution, how will they handle other domestic events that have a bearing on Sino-U.S. relations that may yet crop up before the 18th Party Congress?

Steven M. Oliver is a Ph.D. student in the Political Science Department at University of California, San Diego. Steven’s dissertation addresses the incentives of local...

More

Susan L. Shirk is the chair of the 21st Century China Program and Ho Miu Lam Professor of China and Pacific Relations at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (...

More

Stephen Oliver is a PhD student in Political Science and Susan Shirk is Ho Miu Lam Professor of China and Pacific Relations and Chair of the 21st Century China Program at UC-San Diego. 

Viewpoint

05.13.13

Maoism: The Most Severe Threat to China

OUYANG BIN

Ma Licheng (马立诚) is a former Senior Editorials Editor at People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s most important mouthpiece, and the author of eleven books. In 2003, when Japan’s then-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s visits to the Yasukuni Shrine inflamed China’s...

Viewpoint

04.26.13

Sino-American Relations: Amour or Les Miserables?

WINSTON LORD

Winston Lord, former United States Ambassador to China, tells us he recently hacked into the temples of government, pecking at his first-generation iPad with just one finger—a clear sign that both Beijing and Washington need to beef...

Viewpoint

04.05.13

Christopher Hill on North Korea’s Provocations

OUYANG BIN

The first months of 2013 have seen a rapid intensification of combative rhetoric and action from North Korea. In the sixteen months since Kim Jong-un assumed leadership of the country, North Korea has run through the whole litany of provocations his father’s regime had deployed...

Viewpoint

04.04.13

‘Hi! I’m Fang!’ The Man Who Changed China

PERRY LINK

In China in the 1980s, the word renquan (“human rights”) was extremely “sensitive.” Few dared even to utter it in public, let alone to champion the concept. Now, nearly three decades later, a grassroots movement called weiquan (“supporting rights”) has spread widely,...

Viewpoint

03.19.13

For Many in China, the One Child Policy is Already...

LESLIE T. CHANG

Before getting pregnant with her second child, Lu Qingmin went to the family-planning office to apply for a birth permit. Officials in her husband’s Hunan village where she was living turned her down, but she had the baby anyway. She may eventually be fined $1,600—about what...

Viewpoint

02.25.13

Xi Jinping Should Expand Deng Xiaoping’s Reforms

ZHOU RUIJIN

A month after the conclusion of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 18th National Congress, the new Secretary General of the CCP and Central Military Commission, comrade Xi Jinping, left Beijing to visit Shenzhen, the first foothold of China’s economic reforms. He placed a...

Viewpoint

01.24.13

China at the Tipping Point?

PERRY LINK, XIAO QIANG

Of all the transformations that Chinese society has undergone over the past fifteen years, the most dramatic has been the growth of the Internet. Information now circulates and public opinions are now expressed on electronic bulletin boards with nationwide reach such as Tianya...

Viewpoint

01.15.13

Will Xi Jinping Differ from His Predecessors?

ANDREW J. NATHAN

As part of our continuing series on China’s recent leadership transition, Arthur Ross Fellow Ouyang Bin sat down with political scientist Andrew Nathan, who published his latest book, China’s Search for Security, in September.In the three videos below, Nathan discusses newly...

Viewpoint

01.13.13

Is Xi Jinping a Reformer? It’s Much Too Early to Tell

RACHEL BEITARIE, JEFFREY WASSERSTROM

Last weekend, Nicholas Kristof wrote in the pages of The New York Times that he feels moderately confident China will experience resurgent economic reform and probably political reform as well under the leadership of recently installed Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping...

Viewpoint

11.15.12

Age of China’s New Leaders May Have Been Key to...

SUSAN SHIRK

Earlier this week, before the new Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) and Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party were announced, I argued that the Party faces the difficult problem of how to allocate power in the absence of an open and legitimate leadership selection process. I...

Viewpoint

11.14.12

The Future of Legal Reform

CARL MINZNER

Carl Minzner, Professor of Law at Fordham University, talks here about the ways China’s legal reforms have ebbed and flowed, speeding up in the early 2000s, but then slowing down again after legal activists began to take the government at its word, attempting to use the letter...

Viewpoint

11.14.12

Change in Historical Context

PETER PERDUE

China’s Communist Party has only ruled the country since 1949. But China has a long history of contentious transfers of power among its ruler. In these videos, Yale historian, Peter C. Perdue, an expert on China's last dynasty, the Qing, puts China’s current leadership...

Viewpoint

11.14.12

Are You Happier Than You Were Ten Years Ago?

J. MICHAEL EVANS

“Many Chinese feel that they have not participated in the economic benefits of an economy that has been growing very rapidly,” says Michael Evans, a vice chairman of the Goldman Sachs Group and head of growth markets for the Wall Street investment bank. Nowadays, many...

Viewpoint

11.13.12

China’s Next Leaders: A Guide to What’s at Stake

SUSAN SHIRK

Just a little more than a week after the American presidential election, China will choose its own leaders in its own highly secretive way entirely inside the Communist Party. What’s at stake for China—and for the rest of the world—is not just who will fill which leadership...

Viewpoint

11.09.12

Pragmatism and Patience

HAMID BIGLARI

Hamid Bilgari, Vice Chairman of Citicorp, the strategic arm of Citigroup, is a leader in international investment banking. Bilgari says that pragmatism and patience are the dominant qualities exhibited by cultures facing major change, such as the leadership transition at...

Viewpoint

11.08.12

Who is Xi Jinping?

ORVILLE SCHELL

In an era of great change and economic uncertainty around the world, one might expect a leadership transition at the top of one of the world’s rising powers to shine a light on that country’s prospective next leaders so the public might form an opinion of them and decide...

Viewpoint

11.07.12

Peering Inside the ‘Black Box’

ORVILLE SCHELL

Just hours after the United States voted for its next president, China, too, is preparing for a leadership change—although much less is known about that process, which begins Thursday with the start of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. In an attempt to...

Viewpoint

11.05.12

The Big Enterprise

ORVILLE SCHELL

In days of yore, when a new dynasty was established in China and a new emperor was enthroned, it was known as dashi, “The Big Enterprise,” and it usually involved mass social upheaval and civil war. The latter-day version of changing leaders now takes place at Party...

Caixin Media

11.02.12

18 Reforms for the Party’s 18th Congress

CAIXIN

China’s leadership handover comes at a critical moment for society and the economy, and changes are in order.The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party this month comes at a critical time described by economist Wu Jinglian as “a tipping point for China’s economic...

Viewpoint

10.29.12

Hollywood Film Summit Draws Chinese Movie Moguls

JONATHAN LANDRETH

LOS ANGELES—Hollywood and Chinese movie makers and industry hangers-on will gather Tuesday at the third annual Asia Society U.S.-China Film Summit on the campus of the University of California, Los Angeles.At a gala dinner Tuesday night, organizers Peter Shiao of ORB Media and...

Media

10.26.12

Myanmar Envy

BI CHENG

Chinese netizens’ reactions to tentative democratic reforms in neighboring Myanmar, including to the recent repeal of censorship rules for private publishers by the Southeast Asian nation’s reformist government, reflect just how closely it’s possible for average Chinese to...

Viewpoint

05.30.12

The Sweet and the Sour in China-U.S. Relations

WINSTON LORD

At this very hour, one early May, just shy of a half century ago, I married a girl from Shanghai and we launched our joint adventure.Ever since, Bette Bao and I have practiced the precept of Adam Smith—division of labor. She manages our finances and real estate. I changed the...

Viewpoint

05.20.12

Chen Guangcheng: A Hopeful Breakthrough?

ORVILLE SCHELL

The arrival of the celebrated Chinese rights activist, Chen Guangcheng in the U.S. after years of prison and house arrest, raises the larger question of what the whole incident will come to mean in terms of the status of dissidents in China and in U.S.-China relations.In the...

DISCUSSION

The Chinese Miracle?

JONATHAN D. SPENCE

Over the last few months the news and reportage about China have become almost incomprehensibly divided between two points of view. According to one set of reports, China is now confirmed as an economic “colossus,” shaking off all the trammels of the past, yearning to host...

Is There Enough Chinese Food?

VACLAV SMIL

1.Many Americans think they know something about Chinese food. But very few know anything about food in China, about the ways in which it is grown, stored, distributed, eaten, and wasted, about its effects on the country’s politics, and about its importance to the rest of the...

Room at the Top

PICO IYER

The last time I was in the Himalayas, I met a young, highly Westernized Tibetan who, misled perhaps by my Indian features (born in England, I’ve never lived in the subcontinent), started talking to me about the strange ways of the exotic foreigners he saw all around him. “...