Can China Keep Growing at 8% Annually?

Simon Montlake
Forbes
China’s economy grew by 7.8% in the third quarter, its fastest pace since the end of 2012. For most world leaders heading into a party conclave, this would be triumphant news, but now the debate is over how far Xi can and should go to...

Infographics

10.23.13

To Save or Not to Save

from Sohu
China is known for saving money, and as the country has become wealthier, the household saving rate has increased. China’s personal saving rate has risen steadily since the mid-90s and now exceeds 50%, much higher than Germany’s 10%—considered high...

China Reports a Modest Acceleration of Growth

Chris Buckley
New York Times
The third-quarter data are likely to give policy makers in Beijing more confidence that, for now, they can maintain adequate growth without resorting to major stimulus initiatives, several economists said. 

China Data Proves Doubters Wrong

Richard Silk
WSJ: China Real Time Report
Not long ago analysts were pondering whether China could meet its 7.5% growth target for the year. Now, after a series of happy surprises on the economic front, the question is how far third quarter growth will exceed that goal. 

China Trade Rebounds in Further Sign Economy Stablizing

Bloomberg
China’s exports increased more than estimated in August and inflation stayed below a government target, helping Premier Li Keqiang sustain a rebound in the world’s second-largest economy from a two-quarter slowdown. 

Too Much, Too Fast: China Sees Backlash From Massive Growth

Jim Zarroli
NPR
At a time when much of the world is mired in economic torpor, China still enjoys enviable growth rates. Yet there’s no question that its economy is growing more slowly these days. 

How a Beige Book Could Shed Some Light on China’s Shadow Economy

Dan Kedmey
Time
As China grows, the National Bureau of Statistics’ data remain arcane. In efforts to attain accuracy, The Beige Book curates a report based on their online and in-person surveys of more than 2,000 businesses and banks...

Crunch Time

Michael Pettis
Foreign Policy
In the months leading up to last week's liquidity crunch, in which the cost of short-term loans in China spiked and roiled global markets, most financial institutions had been lowering their growth forecasts for China. In mid-June, the...

Sinica Podcast

06.07.13

What China is Getting Right

Kaiser Kuo, Jeremy Goldkorn & more from Sinica Podcast
Complain as we might about life in China, the last thirty-four years or so haven’t been all bad: we have seen three decades of roughly ten percent GDP growth, a whole lot of people eating a whole lot better than they did, and impressive progress...

Tamping Down Expectations on China’s Growth

Bill Bishop
Deal Book
Mr. Xi also said “China will not sacrifice the environment for temporary economic growth” and that officials will be held responsible for pollution “for life.”  

China Export Gains Spur Renewed Skepticism of Figures

Bloomberg
The 14.7% increase, reported by the General Administration of Customs in Beijing today, was led by a 57.2% jump in shipments to Hong Kong that highlighted suspicions of false transactions used to mask capital flows into China.&...

Stocks Rally on China, German Data, Euro Gains

Herbert Lash
Reuters
Global equity markets and the euro rose on Wednesday as strong Chinese trade data and signs that Germany may escape a sharp slowdown pushed shares to five-year highs worldwide, with U.S. benchmarks climbing to all-time records. 

Reports

05.01.13

A Changing China: Implications for Developing Countries

Philip Schellekens
World Bank
Three decades of rapid growth and structural change have transformed China into an upper-middle-income country and global economic powerhouse. China's transformations over this period wielded increasing influence over the development path of...

Reports

03.29.13

China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth

Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, Liu Xueyan
Luo Xiaoyuan
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
This paper proposes a possible framework for identifying excessive investment. Based on this method, it finds evidence that some types of investment are becoming excessive in China, particularly in inland provinces. In these regions, private...

Reports

03.27.13

China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society

Sara Segal-Williams
World Bank
Can China’s growth rate still be among the highest in the world even if it slows from its current pace? And can it maintain this rapid growth with little disruption to the world, the environment, and the fabric of its own society? This report...

Caixin Media

03.23.13

China’s Economic Policymakers Turning a Page

Written into the script for China’s once-in-a-decade leadership shuffle, confirmed at the recently concluded National People’s Congress, are macroeconomic policies for the new government that plot a course for future growth.The policy book has...

Caixin Media

01.20.13

How to Implement the “Going Out” Strategy

Now is the right time for China to implement its global outreach strategy.While seizing this opportunity, we should also guard against risk first, with a sense of calmness. This means adhering to business decisions and sound operations, considering...

Economists React: China's GDP Growth Hits 7.9% in Fourth Quarter

China Real Time Report
Wall Street Journal
Chinese growth is likely to stabilize around 8% this year after a more than two-year slowdown. 

Books

01.14.13

Governing Health in Contemporary China

Yanzhong Huang
The lack of significant improvement in people’s health status and other mounting health challenges in China raise a puzzling question about the country’s internal transition: why did the reform-induced dynamics produce an economic miracle, but fail to reproduce the success Mao had achieved in the health sector? This book examines the political and policy dynamics of health governance in post-Mao China. It explores the political-institutional roots of the public health and health care challenges and the evolution of the leaders’ policy response in contemporary China. It argues that reform-induced institutional dynamics, when interacting with Maoist health policy structure in an authoritarian setting, have not only contributed to the rising health challenges in contemporary China, but also shaped the patterns and outcomes of China’s health system transition. The study of China’s health governance will further our understanding of the evolving political system in China and the complexities of China’s rise. As the world economy and international security are increasingly vulnerable to major disease outbreaks in China, it also sheds critical light on China’s role in global health governance. —Routledge

China's 'Affluent' Population to Hit 280 Million by 2020

Laurie Burkitt
Wall Street Journal
As China tries to shift from a manufacturing-based economy to one driven by consumption, it hopes to double its consumer base.

China's Economy to Overtake U.S. Economy in Four Years, Says OECD

Jospehine Moulds
Guardian
A Paris-based think tank said China's economy will be larger than the combined eurozone economies by year's end and will overtake the US by the end of 2016...

China: Does It Have to Become more like us?

Stephanie Flanders
BBC
Economic history teaches us that China is likely to get stuck in the middle: neither a poor economy nor a rich one.

China’s Lost Decade

Ian Johnson from New York Review of Books
It’s hard to believe, but just twenty years ago China was on the verge of abandoning the market reforms that have since propelled it to its current position as a world power. Conservatives had used the 1989 Tiananmen massacre to reverse the country’...

What the Foxconn Riot Says About China

Evan Osnos
New Yorker
Day by day, Chinese workers expect better conditions and greater guarantees that when companies go bust, the employees will not. And, yet, China permits no independent trade unions or free collective bargaining. Complaint and mediation procedures...

Features

09.18.12

A Mosque of Their Own

Kathleen McLaughlin
The women of Sangpo know well they are the guardians of a 300-year-old custom that sets them apart in Islam and they are increasingly mindful that economic development could be that tradition’s undoing.Sangpo, a dusty hamlet about two hours from the...

Caixin Media

09.07.12

Local Governments Bet Big on New Investment

They’re still hung over from a 4 trillion yuan spending spree initiated by the central government nearly four years ago, but local governments across China are pressing ahead anyway with huge new investment plans.In late August, for example, the...

Assigning Blame for a Hard Landing

Eric Fish
Sinostand
Over the next few months we should start to see an answer to the “hard vs. soft landing” question. Since talk of a possible hard landing began, I’ve often wondered how China’s propaganda apparatus would respond if and when China’s economy takes a...

China Confronts Mounting Piles of Unsold Goods

Keith Bradsher
New York Times
After three decades of torrid growth, China is encountering an unfamiliar problem with its newly struggling economy: a huge buildup of unsold goods that is cluttering shop floors, clogging car dealerships and filling factory warehouses.

Caixin Media

08.18.12

Economist Lin Yifu on State-Sustained Growth

Standing up to a wave of pessimism about China’s prospects for continuing high-level economic growth is no easy task.But economist Lin Yifu, who recently retired as a senior vice president and chief economist at the World Bank, is holding his ground...

Books

07.26.12

Winner Take All

Dambisa Moyo
Commodities permeate virtually every aspect of modern daily living, but for all their importance—their breadth, their depth, their intricacies, and their central role in daily life—few people who are not economists or traders know how commodity markets work. Almost every day, newspaper headlines and media commentators scream warnings of impending doom--shortages of arable land, clashes over water, and political conflict as global demand for fossil fuels outstrips supply. The picture is bleak, but our grasp of the details and the macro shifts in commodities markets remain blurry.Winner Take All is about the commodity dynamics that the world will face over the next several decades. In particular, it is about the implications of China’s rush for resources across all regions of the world. The scale of China’s resource campaign for hard commodities (metals and minerals) and soft commodities (timber and food) is among the largest in history. To be sure, China is not the first country to launch a global crusade to secure resources. From Britain’s transcontinental operations dating back to the end of the 16th century, to the rise of modern European and American transnational corporations between the mid 1860’s and 1870’s, the industrial revolution that powered these economies created a voracious demand for raw materials and created the need to go far beyond their native countries.So too is China’s resource rush today. Although still in its early stages, already the breadth of China’s operation is awesome, and seemingly unstoppable. China’s global charge for commodities is a story of China’s quest to secure its claims on resource assets, and to guarantee the flow of inputs needed to continue to drive economic development.  —Basic Books

A Slowdown is Good for China and the World

Michael Pettis
Financial Times
What the rest of the world needs from China is not faster growth but more demand. Rebalancing will provide that, although the trade surplus will probably rise before it begins to decline. This will result in falling prices for hard commodities, and...

Sinica Podcast

07.20.12

Attack of the Piranhas

Jeremy Goldkorn, William Moss & more from Sinica Podcast
This week on Sinica, Chinese economic growth is on the rocks, ASEAN tensions are breaking through the facade of East-Asian political unity, a major Chinese telecom company is implicated in an international trade scandal, and man-eating fish have...

Caixin Media

07.18.12

Financial Reform Has Only Begun

The Chinese economy’s rapid growth over the past thirty years has fundamentally changed global economic structures. But our achievements have come at a price: We have run up against hard limits in many areas, including factor investment costs and...

Caixin Media

07.06.12

Powering Down Coal-Fired Economic Expansion

Slowing nationwide power demand and coal consumption, twin barometers for economic growth, suggest the Chinese economy may be sailing into the doldrums while at the same time changing its course.Electricity use in May rose a relatively mild 5.2...

Caixin Media

06.29.12

Barclay’s Diamond Offers an Optimistic Vision

A calm, confident Robert Diamond discussed financial restructuring in Europe and economic options for the Chinese government during a June 14 interview—thirteen days before the British bank where he serves as CEO, Barclays Group, was fined for...

Books

06.12.12

Sustaining China’s Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis

Nicholas R. Lardy
The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn have raised many questions concerning the future of global economic growth. Prior to the financial crisis, global growth was characterized by growing imbalances, reflected primarily in large trade surpluses in China, Japan, Germany, and the oil exporting countries and rapidly growing deficits, primarily in the United States. The global crisis raises the question of whether the previous growth model of low consumption, high saving countries such as China is obsolete. Although a strong and rapid policy response beginning in the early fall of 2008 made China the first globally significant economy to come off the bottom and begin to grow more rapidly, critics charged that China's recovery was based on the old growth model, relying primarily on burgeoning investment in the short run and the expectation of a revival of expanding net exports once global recovery gained traction.This study examines China's response to the global crisis, the prospects for altering the model of economic growth that dominated the first decade of this century, and the implications for the United States and the global economy of successful Chinese rebalancing.   —Peterson Institute for International Economics

Caixin Media

04.24.12

China’s Tax Burden: A Mysterious Lead Sinker

(Beijing)—In much of the world, admiration and envy are common reactions to China’s consistently high GDP growth rates. But closer to home, the Chinese public’s admiration of their own economic miracle is shadowed by tax increases that...

Books

04.13.12

The End of Cheap China

Shaun Rein
Many Americans know China for manufacturing cheap products, thanks largely to the country's vast supply of low-cost workers. But China is changing, and the glut of cheap labor that has made everyday low prices possible is drying up as the Chinese people seek not to make iPhones, but to buy them. Shaun Rein, Founder of the China Market Research Group, puts China's continuing transformation from producer to large-scale consumer - a process that is farther along than most economists think - under the microscope, examining eight megatrends that are catalyzing change in China and posing threats to Americans' consumption-driven way of life. Rein takes an engaging and informative approach to examining the extraordinary changes taking place across all levels of Chinese society, talking to everyone from Chinese billionaires and senior government officials to poor migrant workers and even prostitutes. He draws on personal stories and experiences from living in China since the 1990s as well as hard economic data. Each chapter focuses on a different aspect of China's transformation, from fast-improving Chinese companies to confident, optimistic Chinese women to the role of China's government, and at the end breaks down key lessons for readers to take away.  —John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Reports

04.01.12

Is China Slowing Down?

John H. Makin
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
With problems in the manufacturing, housing, and export sectors in China, we will likely see slower gross domestic product growth for the world’s second largest economy in 2012. China’s leadership is changing for the first time in a decade, and its...

Reports

01.06.12

Macroeconomic Policy to the Forefront: The Changing of the Guard

Barry Naughton
He Jianan
China Leadership Monitor
Worries continue to swirl around the Chinese and global economies, and China’s growth is slowing at the end of 2011. However, the news from China in the third quarter of 2011 was basically positive: inflationary pressures eased while growth slowed...

Environment

01.01.12

China’s Rising Consumer Class Sparks Climate Change Fears

Craig Simons
TUOJIA VILLAGE, China—When you think about China’s growing greenhouse gas emissions, you probably don’t think of people like Zhang Chao or his father Zhang Dejun. Zhang Chao, a thirty-five-year-old middle school teacher living in small city in...

Reports

09.28.11

Market Integration in China

Qingqing Chen, Chor-Ching Goh, Bo Sun, and Lixin Colin Xu
World Bank
Over the last three decades, China's product, labor, and capital markets have become gradually more integrated within its borders, although integration has been significantly slower for capital markets. There remains a significant urban-rural...

Reports

09.28.11

Growth Poles and Multipolarity

Jonathon Adams-Kane and James Jerome Lim
World Bank
This paper develops an empirical measure of growth poles and uses it to examine the phenomenon of multipolarity. The authors formally define several alternative measures, provide theoretical justifications for these measures, and compute polarity...

Reports

08.01.11

Measuring the Economic Gain of Investing in Girls

Jad Chaaban and Wendy Cunningham
World Bank
This report discusses the economic impact of the exclusion of girls from productive employment in developing countries. The paper explores the linkages between investing in girls and potential increases in national income by examining three widely...

Quality of Life: India vs. China

Amartya Sen from New York Review of Books
The steadily rising rate of economic growth in India has recently been around 8 percent per year (it is expected to be 9 percent this year), and there is much speculation about whether and when India may catch up with and surpass China’s over 10...

Sinica Podcast

05.01.11

Nouriel Roubini Gets It in the A** in China

Kaiser Kuo, Jeremy Goldkorn & more from Sinica Podcast
China Doomerism, the once familiar retreat of a chummy pantheon of economic cranks, recently went mainstream with Nouriel Roubini’s pronouncement that the Chinese economy is wrestling with over-investment and his prediction that it will likely come...

Reports

04.28.11

Identifying the Linkages Between Major Mining Commodity Prices and China’s Economic Growth—Implications for Latin America

Yongzhen Yu
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Major mining commodity prices are inherently volatile and cyclical. High levels of investment in China have been a key driver in the strong world demand for minerals and metals over the past decade. The urbanization and industrialization of China...

Sinica Podcast

04.22.11

China’s Second Internet Bubble?

Kaiser Kuo, Jeremy Goldkorn & more from Sinica Podcast
Interest in Chinese Internet companies has reached a fever pitch. Fueled by the fact that roughly fifty percent of the companies that went public on NASDAQ last year were Chinese in origin, at least seventeen more high-profile companies are planning...

Books

04.15.11

Tide Players

Jianying Zha
In Tide Players, acclaimed New Yorker contributor and author Jianying Zha depicts a new generation of movers and shakers who are transforming modern China. Through half a dozen sharply etched and nuanced profiles, Tide Players captures both the concrete detail and the epic dimension of life in the world’s fastest growing economy. Zha’s vivid cast of characters includes an unlikely couple who teamed up to become the country’s leading real-estate moguls; a gifted chameleon who transformed himself from Mao’s favorite “barefoot doctor” during the Cultural Revolution to a publishing maverick; and a tycoon of home-electronic chain stores who insisted on avenging his mother, who had been executed as “a counter-revolutionary criminal.” Alongside these entrepreneurs, Zha also brings us the intellectuals: a cantankerous professor at China’s top university; a former cultural minister turned prolific writer; and Zha’s own brother, a dissident who served a nine-year prison term for helping to found the China Democracy Party. Deeply engaging, lucid, and poignant, Zha’s insightful “insider-outsider” portraits offer a picture of a China that few Western readers have seen before. —The New Press{chop}

Reports

03.01.11

How Do Special Economic Zones and Industrial Clusters Drive China’s Rapid Development?

Douglas Zhihua Zeng
World Bank
In the past thirty years, China has achieved phenomenal economic growth, an unprecedented development “miracle” in human history. How did China achieve this rapid growth? What have been its key drivers? And, most important, what can be learned from...

Reports

01.01.11

Reducing Inequality for Shared Growth in China: Strategy and Policy Options for Guangdong Province

World Bank
This report is the result of a partnership of the World Bank and the Guangdong provincial government to assess economic and regional inequality in Guangdong. It defines three major types of inequality: Absolute poverty, Inequality of Opportunity,...

Unveiling Hidden China

Christian Caryl from New York Review of Books
Napoleon famously described China as a sleeping giant that would shake the world when it finally awoke. Well, now the giant is up and about, and the rest of us can’t help but notice. 2010, indeed, could well end up being remembered as the year when...

Reports

12.01.10

Transforming China: Insights from the Japanese Experience of the 1980s

Papa N'Diaye
Sara Segal-Williams
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
China is poised on the brink of a transition to a service-based economy. The Japanese experience of the 1980s provides several insights about the way to manage such a transition and the downsides to avoid. In particular Japan offers useful insights...

Reports

07.01.10

People’s Republic of China: 2010 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion

International Monetary Fund (IMF)
This is the staff report for the 2010 Article IV consultation, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on July 1, 2010, with the officials of the People's Republic of China on economic developments and policies...

Reports

01.01.10

China: Does Government Health and Education Spending Boost Consumption?

Steven Barnett and Ray Brooks
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Consumption in China is unusually low and has continued to decline as a share of GDP over the past decade. A key policy question is how to reverse this trend, and rebalance growth away from reliance on exports and investment and toward consumption...

China: The Fragile Superpower

Christian Caryl from New York Review of Books
Some China watchers believe that China’s dramatically rising prosperity will inevitably make the country more open and democratic. President Barack Obama’s highly-scripted trip this week provided little to support that claim. As The Washington Post...

Reports

04.01.08

A Real Model of Transitional Growth and Competitiveness in China

Leslie Lipschitz, Céline Rochon, and Geneviève Verdier
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The authors present a stylized real model of the Chinese economy with the objective of explaining two features: (1) domestic production is highly competitive in the sense that an accumulation of capital that raises the marginal product of labor...

Reports

02.13.08

How Large is China’s Economy? Does it Matter?

Wayne M. Morrison, Michael F. Martin
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
China’s rapid economic growth since 1979 has transformed it into a major economic power. Over the past few years, many analysts have contended that China could soon overtake the United States to become the world’s largest economy, based on estimates...

Reports

12.01.07

High Growth and Low Consumption in East Asia: How to Improve Welfare While Avoiding Financial Failures

Andrew Feltenstein, Céline Rochon, and Maral Shamloo
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
This paper analyzes certain policies that are typical of a number of rapidly growing East Asian countries in which a fixed exchange rate, combined with a surplus labor market, has made domestic assets relatively inexpensive, generating high rates of...

Reports

01.13.07

Is China a Threat to the U.S. Economy?

Craig K. Elwell, Marc Labonte
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
The rise of China from a poor, stagnant country to a major economic power within a time span of only twenty-eight years is often described by analysts as one of the greatest economic success stories in modern times. From 1979 (when economic reforms...