Sinica Podcast

04.24.17

Chris Buckley: The China Journalist’s China Journalist

Chris Buckley, Jeremy Goldkorn & more from Sinica Podcast
Chris Buckley is a highly regarded and very resourceful correspondent based in Beijing for The New York Times. He has worked as a researcher and journalist in China since 1998, including a stint at Reuters, and is one of the few working China...

In Rare Move, Chinese Think Tank Criticizes Tepid Pace of Reform

Chris Buckley
New York Times
These withering findings on China’s reforms come from a startling place: from within the government itself.

Books

02.01.17

Unlikely Partners

Julian Gewirtz
Unlikely Partners recounts the story of how Chinese politicians and intellectuals looked beyond their country’s borders for economic guidance at a key crossroads in the nation’s tumultuous 20th century. Julian Gewirtz offers a dramatic tale of competition for influence between reformers and hardline conservatives during the Deng Xiaoping era, bringing to light China’s productive exchanges with the West.When Mao Zedong died in 1976, his successors seized the opportunity to reassess the wisdom of China’s rigid commitment to Marxist doctrine. With Deng Xiaoping’s blessing, China’s economic gurus scoured the globe for fresh ideas that would put China on the path to domestic prosperity and ultimately global economic power. Leading foreign economists accepted invitations to visit China to share their expertise, while Chinese delegations traveled to the United States, Hungary, Great Britain, West Germany, Brazil, and other countries to examine new ideas. Chinese economists partnered with an array of brilliant thinkers, including Nobel Prize winners, World Bank officials, battle-scarred veterans of Eastern Europe’s economic struggles, and blunt-speaking free-market fundamentalists.Nevertheless, the push from China’s senior leadership to implement economic reforms did not go unchallenged, nor has the Chinese government been eager to publicize its engagement with Western-style innovations. Even today, Chinese Communists decry dangerous Western influences and officially maintain that China’s economic reinvention was the Chinese Communist Party’s achievement alone. Unlikely Partners sets forth the truer story, which has continuing relevance for China’s complex and far-reaching relationship with the West. —Harvard University Press{chop}

China’s Top Economic Official Braces for Possible Trade War

Chris Buckley and Keith Bradsher
New York Times
Liu He has struggled to overcome resistance to a program of measured economic liberalization and more open markets that he argues is critical to China’s long-term economic health

China Adds Curbs on Pulling Money Out of the Country

Bloomberg
New restrictions added as authorities seek to prevent a flood of capital outflows from destabilizing the financial system

Sinica Podcast

09.07.16

Yiwu, a City at the Core of Cheap Chinese Goods

Kaiser Kuo, David Moser & more from Sinica Podcast
Renowned as a trading town during the Qing dynasty, the eastern city of Yiwu again became famous for its markets after China’s economic reforms kicked in during the 1980s. Since then, the metropolis of 1.2 million people has transformed into a hub...

Viewpoint

08.18.16

Zhao Ziyang’s Legacy

David Shambaugh
It is difficult to say with any certainty how China would have evolved had Zhao Ziyang not been overthrown in 1989. The ostensible cause of his purge was his refusal to endorse martial law and authorize the use of force to suppress the Tiananmen...

U.S. Chides China on Steel Glut, Treatment of Foreign Companies at Annual Talks

Simon Denyer
Washington Post
The U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing is overshadowed by growing trade friction and the dispute over the South China Sea.

Reaganomics Finds Friends In High Places In China

Frank Holmes
Forbes
In response to worldwide demands that China manage its economy better, Xi Jinping has proposed what he calls “supply-side structural reform.”

Media

03.04.16

China’s Coming Ideological Wars

Taisu Zhang
For most Chinese, the 1990s were a period of intense material pragmatism. Economic development was the paramount social and political concern, while the various state ideologies that had guided policy during the initial decades of the People’s...

Xi Jinping’s Remedy for China’s Economic Gloom Has Echoes of Reaganomics

Chris Buckley
New York Times
President Xi Jinping has begun pushing a remedy that sounds less like Marx and Mao than Reagan and Thatcher.

Caixin Media

02.01.16

Tough Times call for Tougher Reform Push

Beijing has has done a good job in terms of industrializing the country but will face unprecedented challenges when dealing with a service-driven economy.

China’s Obsolete Economic Strategy

The Editorial Board
New York Times
China has changed dramatically over 30 years, and command-and-control economic management will not produce the results of the past.

Conversation

12.03.15

Does the Renminbi’s Elevation to Global Currency Matter?

Arthur R. Kroeber & Zhiwu Chen
On November 30, the International Monetary Fund approved the Chinese renminbi, also known as the yuan, as one of the world’s leading currencies, underscoring the country’s rising global financial importance. What’s behind the decision and what...

This Explains Why China Is Taking So Long to Reform Its Economic System

Yang Jiang
Washington Post
The new leadership is turning back to old measures to stimulate growth.

Caixin Media

09.15.15

Stock Market Volatility Is Not a Harbinger of Collapsing Growth

It would be a sad end to an amazing story. An economic miracle—one that lifted 300 million people from poverty and shifted the world's economic center of gravity—collapsing under the weight of risky investments and a financial crisis.This seems...

The China Economy: What Lessons for Africa?

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
When African policy makers scan the globe in search of inspiration on how to structure their economies, that search often leads to Beijing. Not surprisingly, African leaders look at what China has done over the past 30 years where it went from being...

China Shares Brush New Low Since Depth of Selloff

Mark Magnier and Chao Deng
Wall Street Journal
Shanghai Composite closes down 4.3%, a fraction above July 8 low.

Features

08.20.15

Is China About to Plunge the World Into Recession?

David Wertime
On Aug. 18, China’s stock market plummeted by a vertigo-inducing 6.2 percent in one day of trading, part of a months-long decline that’s erased over $3 trillion worth of market value from the country’s equity markets. That followed last week’s...

China’s Naked Emperors

Paul Krugman
New York Times
By trying to control the market China's rulers show that despite 25 years of success they have no idea what they’re doing...

Viewpoint

07.12.15

Making Sense of China’s Market Mess

Arthur R. Kroeber
Nearly two years ago China’s Communist Party released a major economic reform blueprint, whose signature phrase was that market forces would be given a “decisive role” in resource allocation. That Third Plenum Decision and other policy...

China’s Economy: A Slower Slowdown

Simon Rabinovich
Economist
It's been nearly six months since China began easing monetary policy and there's little sign of a rebound in growth...

Caixin Media

05.12.15

The Urgency of Continuing with Reform

Concern about the middle-income trap has grabbed public attention again. The minister of finance, Lou Jiwei, recently said at Tsinghua University that China had a “50-50 chance” of sliding into it in the next five to 10 years. However, many...

The Urgency of Continuing with Reform

Hu Shuli
The best way to side step the much-discussed middle-income trap is to forge ahead with changes to the growth model.

China is Still Rising, Just More Slowly

Hu Angang
Foreign Affairs
Embracing China's "new normal" or why the economy Is still 
on track...

Is the Chinese Dragon Losing its Puff?

Peter Hartcher
Sydney Morning Herald

Shambaugh China Essay in Shambles

China Daily
Shambaugh's deep flaw is that he looked at China with a bias, completely ignoring the positive aspects...

Conversation

03.11.15

Is China Really Cracking Up?

Suisheng Zhao, Arthur R. Kroeber & more
On March 7, The Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece by David Shambaugh arguing that “the endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun...and it has progressed further than many think.” Shambaugh laid out a variety of signs he believes...

China Lowers 2015 Economic Growth Target to Around 7 Percent

Xinhua
The growth target is lower than the 7.4-percent economic growth in 2014, its weakest annual expansion since 1990.

Conversation

12.19.14

Just How Successful Is Xi Jinping?

Ian Johnson & Trey Menefee
Last week, Arthur Kroeber, Editor of the China Economic Quarterly opined that “…the Chinese state is not fragile. The regime is strong, increasingly self-confident, and without organized opposition.” His essay, which drew strong, if divided,...

All Eyes Will Be On China This Week

Jeremy Gaunt
Reuters
China's economy, the second largest in the world, gets a spot check this week with a barrage of data due that should indicate how successful Beijing has been in supporting growth...

China Ponders Slow-Growth Dilemma

Lingling Wei
Wall Street Journal
Leadership may have to sacrifice reform agenda to maintain 7.5% economic-growth target.

Caixin Media

09.22.14

Nudging China Toward Governance Reform

Three recent items of news deserve attention. First, revisions to the budget law were passed late last month. Second, in a speech this month marking the 60th anniversary of the founding of the National People's Congress, Party General Secretary...

China Real Estate Falls Back to Earth

Keith Bradsher
New York Times
One of the world’s longest-running bull markets finally seems to be stalling, with broad consequences for China’s economy and possibly its politics as well.

Why India Will Soon Outpace China

James Gruber
Forbes
India’s decentralized, often chaotic economic model has been seen as inferior to China’s authoritarian, top-down model. A reappraisal of that view may soon be in order.

China's Half-Year Report Card on Economic Reform: Slow, Safe and Steady

Kevin Yao and Tomasz Janowski
Reuters
Incremental steps promise to reach enough critical mass to sustain reform momentum and help the world's second-largest economy shift down fairly smoothly after decades of red-hot growth...

Conversation

01.27.14

China’s Offshore Leaks: So What?

Paul Gillis & Robert Kapp
Two recent stories by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists detailed China’s elite funneling money out of China to tax havens in the Caribbean. We asked contributors to weigh the impact of the revelations.

China Reveals Members of New Leading Group on Reform

Zachary Keck
Diplomat
The highly publicized nature of the meeting implies that the Party intends for the group to play a prominent role in future reforms. 

Economic Shifts in U.S. and China Batter Markets

Nathaniel Popper
Deal Book
An index of Chinese manufacturing growth released on January 23 showed that the most important cog in the country’s economy, the world’s second-largest, was contracting for the first time in six months.

Conversation

12.03.13

What Posture Should Joe Biden Adopt Toward A Newly Muscular China?

Susan Shirk
Susan Shirk:United States Vice President Joseph Biden is the American political figure who has spent the most time with Xi Jinping and has the deepest understanding of Xi as an individual. Before Xi’s selection as P.R.C. president and C.C.P. general...

Viewpoint

11.18.13

Xi Jinping Refills an Old Prescription

Orville Schell
The reforms called for by the Third Plenum of the Eighteenth Party Congress have been, like so much else in China over the past few decades, part of an ongoing Chinese quest for national unity, wealth, and power. But, for those of us steeped in...

China’s Party Platter of Overhauls

Alex Frangos
Wall Street Journal
There is hope that the Third Plenum, an important meeting in the life cycle of each five-year Party Congress, could bring real change in the spheres of real estate, banking, state-owned enterprises and currency. 

Viewpoint

11.08.13

China, One Year Later

J. Stapleton Roy, Susan Shirk & more
In November 2012, seven men were appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s supreme governing body. At the time, economic headwinds, nationalist protests, and the Bo Xilai scandal presented huge challenges for the regime. Would the...

Viewpoint

11.01.13

What the Heck is China’s ‘Third Plenum’ and Why Should You Care?

Barry Naughton
China’s economy is already two-thirds the size of the economy of the U.S., and it’s been growing five times as fast. But now, China’s economy is beginning to slow and is facing a raft of difficult problems.  If China’s leaders don’t address...

Can China Keep Growing at 8% Annually?

Simon Montlake
Forbes
China’s economy grew by 7.8% in the third quarter, its fastest pace since the end of 2012. For most world leaders heading into a party conclave, this would be triumphant news, but now the debate is over how far Xi can and should go to...

Conversation

10.25.13

Can State-Run Capitalism Absorb the Shocks of ‘Creative Destruction’?

Barry Naughton, Shai Oster & more
Following are ChinaFile Conversation participants’ reactions to “China: Superpower or Superbust?” in the November-December issue of The National Interest in which author Ian Bremmer says that China’s state-capitalism is ill-equipped to absorb the...

China Urges Economic Policy Implementation to Spur Rebound

Bloomberg
China’s central government called for “unrelenting” implementation of its economic policies and reform measures to consolidate the nation’s recovery from a two-quarter slowdown and improve the quality of growth. 

China Past Due: Facing the Consequences of Control

Mary Kay Magistad
Public Radio International
In the midst of it all, the Chinese people increasingly expect a different kind of relationship with their government – one of citizens and not subjects. They want their rights respected and their preferences heard. 

Conversation

07.23.13

What Would a Hard Landing in China Mean for the World?

Barry Naughton, James McGregor & more
Barry Naughton:Paul Krugman in a recent post (“How Much Should We Worry About a China Shock?” The New York Times, July 20, 2013) tells us NOT to worry about the impact of a slowing China on global exports, but to be worried, very worried about the...

China Must Deepen Reforms to Meet Economic Challenges

Reuters
The new leadership has signalled it is prepared to tolerate slower growth to move the economy away from export-led growth and towards one driven by domestic demand, with 7 percent annual expansion seen as the bottom line.  

I.M.F. Says China Needs Reform to Keep Growth Success

Reuters
China needs another round of “decisive measures” to make sure it continues its successful economic growth as its margins of safety are falling amid growing domestic problems, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest report. 

China Slump Ripples Globally

Alex Frangos and Eric Bellman
Wall Street Journal
As China hopes to reshape its economy to be less reliant on construction and heavy industry, and more reliant on consumer spending, the industries that benefited the most from China’s rise are now being hurt while those aimed at Chinese consumers...

Caixin Media

07.01.13

Renewed Growth on the New Third Board

The State Council announced on June 19 that it would expand the New Third Board, an over-the-counter (OTC) market for non-listed companies’ shares, to include all small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) nationwide.One of the experts estimated the...

Caixin Media

06.25.13

Legal, Economic Reforms Important At Coming Party Session

China’s blueprint for economic reform is finally taking shape. The government has appointed a taskforce to draft the plans, ahead of the third plenary meeting of the 18th Central Committee. With the country’s economy at the crossroads, these plans...

China’s Strength Could Become Its Weakness

John W. Schoen
NBC News
The heavy reliance on state investment produced unintended consequences. Overbuilding of housing created a real estate bubble. The investment a capacity to produce that overshot demand in a variety of areas. 

Tamping Down Expectations on China’s Growth

Bill Bishop
Deal Book
Mr. Xi also said “China will not sacrifice the environment for temporary economic growth” and that officials will be held responsible for pollution “for life.”  

As China’s Economy Stumbles, Government Eyes Reform

Bill Bishop
Deal Book
Urbanization and comprehensive economic reform are among the main hopes for supporting and improving the quality of China’s growth, as well as for commodity producers and investors globally. 

Caixin Media

03.09.13

Is Railway Reform Finally On Track?

Finally, it seems the railways ministry may soon be restructured as part of a wider exercise by the government to streamline its ministries. Putting railway reform on the agenda of this year’s meetings of the National People’s Congress and the...

Conversation

03.08.13

Will China’s Property Market Crash, and So What If It Does?

Dorinda Elliott & Bill Bishop
Dorinda Elliott:At this week’s National People’s Congress, outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao proclaimed that the government kept housing prices from rising too fast. Really? I wonder what my 28-year-old Shanghainese friend Robert thinks about that. He and...