Is the U.S.-China Relationship in Free Fall?: Part II

Paul Haenle & Da Wei from Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
Da Wei argues that shifting domestic politics in China and the United States are negatively impacting bilateral ties. In Washington, there is no longer widespread support for engagement with China. In Beijing, debates over the role of the state in...

Books

06.24.19

China, Trade and Power

Stewart Paterson
London Publishing Partnership: Few people could tell you what happened on December 11, 2001, yet China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will define the geopolitics of the 21st century. What were Western leaders thinking at the time?This book tells the story of the most successful trading nation of the early 21st century. It looks at how the Chinese Communist Party has retained and cemented its monopoly of political power, producing unimagined riches for the political elite. It is the most extraordinary economic success story of our time, and it has reshaped the geopolitics not just of Asia but of the world. As China has come to dominate global manufacturing, its power and influence has grown. This economic power is being translated into political power, and the West now has a global rival that is politically antithetical to liberal values.Meanwhile, economic liberalism has lost its moral foundation, in part because economic outcomes are not perceived to be the result of fair competition. The weaknesses of the West’s democratic model are being laid bare as a lack of wage growth coupled with a policy of inflation targeting by Western central banks has led to falling real incomes for the many, and rising asset prices that have benefited the few.In order to have a fighting chance of protecting the freedoms of liberal democracies, it is of the utmost importance that we understand how the policy of indulgent engagement with China has affected Western society in recent years. Only then will the West be able to change direction for the better, and row back from the harmful consequences of China’s accession to the WTO.{chop}

Viewpoint

04.30.19

Trade: Parade of Broken Promises

Elizabeth Economy from Democracy: A Journal of Ideas
The trade war between the United States and China has not given either side much to cheer about. As of January, Washington has levied 10 percent tariffs on U.S.$250 billion in Chinese goods, and China has reciprocated with similar tariffs on U.S.$...

Conversation

04.30.19

If the U.S. and China Make a Trade Deal, Then What?

Michael Hirson, Graham Webster & more
The U.S.-China trade war has always been about more than just trade. Among other issues, it represents a move towards the decoupling of the two economies. Sometime within the next few weeks, Washington and Beijing may call a truce on the trade war...

China’s Shift to a More Assertive Foreign Policy

Paul Haenle & Shi Yinhong from Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
Shi points to two important turning points in China’s shift to a more assertive foreign policy: the 2008 global financial crisis, which made it clear that China’s economic development was an important engine for global growth; and Xi Jinping’s rise...

China’s Economy is Slowing and That’s Really Bad News for Africa

Eric Olander & Jeremy Stevens
Pretty much every major economic indicator suggests that the Chinese economy will continue its downward momentum in 2019. Industrial production, retail sales, and even the once red-hot property market are all showing real signs of weakness. Some...

Viewpoint

12.21.18

A Look Back at China in 2018

Kyle Hutzler
In 2018, the outlook for China regarding its politics, economy, and relationship with the United States darkened considerably. The removal of presidential term limits and Xi Jinping’s interactions with the Trump administration prompted rare...

Devising a New Formula for Global Leadership

Paul Haenle & Yan Xuetong from Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
Yan asserts the U.S.-China relationship is experiencing structural disruptions, the resolution of which will have a lasting impact on the two countries. He says the tensions in the U.S.-China relationship are primarily due to the narrowing gap...

Managing a Fragile Transition in U.S.-China Relations

Paul Haenle & Cui Liru from Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
Haenle and Cui discuss lessons from the past 40 years of the bilateral relationship, central areas of cooperation and competition, and a future framework that will allow China and the U.S. to avoid conflict. Cui asserts that U.S. and Chinese...

China Is Rising Faster

Paul Haenle & Wang Jisi from Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
Wang says that it has been primarily China’s development that has driven changes in the U.S.-China relationship going back to the Qing Dynasty. However, the U.S. still has significant influence and can play an important role in guiding China’s...

Conversation

10.17.18

The Taxman Cometh for Fan Bingbing. So How Widespread Is Tax Evasion in China?

Wei Cui, Donald Clarke & more
Mega-famous Chinese actress Fan Bingbing emerged from months of silence to admit on Weibo that she had evaded taxes and owed over U.S.$100 million worth of civil fines to Chinese authorities. In a remarkable apology, Fan wrote that, “without good...

The U.S. and China as Peer Competitors in the Indo-Pacific

Paul Haenle & Abigail Grace from Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
The Trump administration has taken a more confrontational approach to bilateral relations with China, implementing tariffs on nearly half of all Chinese exports to the U.S. and treating Beijing as a strategic competitor across many aspects of the...

Conversation

09.10.18

Is the Trade War Hurting Xi Jinping Politically?

Roselyn Hsueh, Andrew J. Nathan & more
What are the domestic politics for Xi Jinping of a trade war? How much is the trade war actually hurting China’s economy? And what other effects is this having on China, and on Xi’s ability to govern?

Conversation

07.12.18

Can China Replace the U.S. in Europe?

Jan Weidenfeld, Isabel Hilton & more
The G7 debacle reminded Europeans the problems with relying on a fraying transatlantic partnership. Meanwhile, China has been playing a larger role on the continent, increasing its investment and its political influence. On July 6-7, Bulgaria held...

A U.S. View on China’s So-Called ‘Debtbook Diplomacy’ Agenda

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
For the past year or so, senior U.S. government officials have been accusing China of engaging in so-called “debtbook diplomacy,” a tactic that Washington contends intentionally burdens developing countries with billions of dollars of loans. When...

Made in China 2025

Paul Haenle & Paul Triolo from Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
China’s “Made in China 2025” policy to upgrade its industry plays a central role in the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. Paul Haenle sat down with Paul Triolo, practice head of Geo-technology at the Eurasia Group, to discuss how the Chinese...

Conversation

06.14.18

One Year After They Almost Went to War, Can China and India Get Along?

Joel Wuthnow, Selina Ho & more
One year ago, the Chinese and Indian armies faced off at Doklam, a disputed Himalayan area on the border between China, India, and the tiny kingdom of Bhutan. While the two sides didn’t go to war over the border as they did in 1962, tensions were...

Resetting China-India Relations

Paul Haenle & C. Raja Mohan from Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
Following a year marked by mounting tensions between China and India, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in Wuhan for an informal summit in April to reset the relationship. Major points of tension dominating China-India...

Conversation

05.07.18

Can China Afford to Play Hardball with the U.S.?

Zha Daojiong & William Foster
In the midst of roiling trade tensions between the United States and China, last week Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin led a delegation of Donald Trump’s top economic advisors to Beijing. Demands were made in both directions and talks were...

Angola: China’s Risky Gamble in Africa

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
China has loaned Angola an estimated U.S.$60 billion dollars since the two countries established diplomatic relations back in 1983, making it one of the top destinations for Chinese financing in Africa. Angola is especially attractive for the...

Books

04.12.18

China’s Great Wall of Debt

Dinny McMahon
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt: Over the course of a decade spent reporting on the ground in China as a financial journalist, Dinny McMahon gradually came to the conclusion that the widely held belief in China’s inevitable economic ascent is dangerously wrong.In this unprecedented deep dive, McMahon shows how, lurking behind the illusion of prosperity, China’s economic growth has been built on a staggering mountain of debt. While stories of newly built but empty cities, white elephant state projects, and a byzantine shadow banking system have all become a regular fixture in the press in recent years, McMahon goes beyond the headlines to explain how such waste has been allowed to flourish, and why one of the most powerful governments in the world has been at a loss to stop it.Through the stories of ordinary Chinese citizens, McMahon tries to make sense of the unique—and often bizarre—mechanics of the Chinese economy, whether it be the state’s addiction to appropriating land from poor farmers, why a Chinese entrepreneur decided it was cheaper to move his yarn factory to South Carolina, why ambitious Chinese mayors build ghost cities, or why the Chinese bureaucracy was able to stare down Beijing’s attempts to break up the state’s pointless monopoly over the distribution of table salt.Debt, entrenched vested interests, a frenzy of speculation, and an aging population are all pushing China toward an economic reckoning. China’s Great Wall of Debt unravels an incredibly complex and opaque economy, one whose fortunes—for better or worse—will shape the globe like never before.{chop}

Hopes Are High for China to Announce Market Access Reforms on Tuesday

Nyshka Chandran
CNBC
Xi’s speech to announce market reforms could help heal U.S.-China trade frictions.

China Reports Its Fastest Economic Growth In 7 Years

NPR
China is reporting its fastest economic growth in seven years, saying its gross domestic product grew by 6.9 percent in 2017. 

China Inflicted a World of Pain on South Korea in 2017

Quartz
Perhaps no other country felt the economic cost of China’s wrath as South Korea did this year.

China to USA: 'Stop Deliberately Distorting' Our Global Strategy

CNBC
China hit back at the U.S. after it branded the East Asian giant a competitor, accusing it of distorting the country's intentions and adopting a "Cold War" mentality...

At South Korea-China Summit, South Korean Journalist Beaten Bloody

CNN
The summit was intended to cement improved relations after a frosty period of tension between China and South Korea.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping's Grand Gestures Can't Paper over Diplomatic Divide

South China Morning Post
China and the United States announced a record-breaking “gift pack” of a quarter of a trillion US dollars worth of business deals as the presidents of the two nations wrapped up their talks on Thursday.

China's CEOs View Trump as a Dealmaker

Bloomberg
President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ rhetoric on trade has prompted concerns among many that his words could soon be matched by action. Chinese executives say they’re not worried.

Trump Touts 'Great Chemistry' with China's Xi as Leaders Agree to Closer Ties

NPR
President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping say they have agreed to work together on the denuclearization of North Korea and closer cooperation on trade.

U.S. Companies Signed a Ton of Deals during Trump's China Trip

Fortune
U.S. companies, from chip giant Qualcomm to aircraft maker Boeing, announced a slew of deals on Thursday during U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing. The deals could be valued as much as $250 billion, though some have been long in the...

How China’s Economy Is Poised to Win the Future

Ian Bremmer
Time
President Trump has plenty of work to do during his 10-day tour of Asia in November. In Japan and South Korea, he must reassure nervous allies that an “America first” foreign policy does not mean the U.S. has ceded regional dominance to China. In...

Conversation

11.02.17

Trump Goes to Asia

Ely Ratner, David Dollar & more
Chinese officials like to talk about practicing “win-win” diplomacy. Their American counterparts sometime joke that this means China wins twice. From November 3 to November 14, Donald Trump will visit Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines,...

Accelerating Fintech in China

Joshua Bateman
TechCrunch
China’s expeditious adoption of fintech is generating profits not only for startups, but also the companies investing in them. Sitting in the headquarters of FinPlus, a fintech venture capital firm and accelerator, its CEO, Mosso Lau, said, “There...

Books

09.27.17

Cracking the China Conundrum

Yukon Huang
China’s rise is altering global power relations, reshaping economic debates, and commanding tremendous public attention. Despite extensive media and academic scrutiny, the conventional wisdom about China’s economy is often wrong. Cracking the China Conundrum provides a holistic and contrarian view of China’s major economic, political, and foreign policy issues.Yukon Huang trenchantly addresses widely accepted yet misguided views in the analysis of China’s economy. He examines arguments about the causes and effects of China’s possible debt and property market bubbles, trade and investment relations with the West, the links between corruption and political liberalization in a growing economy, and Beijing’s more assertive foreign policies. Huang explains that such misconceptions arise in part because China’s economic system is unprecedented in many ways—namely because it’s driven by both the market and state—which complicates the task of designing accurate and adaptable analysis and research. Further, China’s size, regional diversity, and uniquely decentralized administrative system pose difficulties for making generalizations and comparisons from micro to macro levels when trying to interpret China’s economic state accurately.This book not only interprets the ideologies that experts continue building misguided theories upon, but also examines the contributing factors to this puzzle. Cracking the China Conundrum provides an enlightening and corrective viewpoint on several major economic and political foreign policy concerns currently shaping China’s economic environment. —Oxford University Press{chop}Related Reading:“What the West Gets Wrong About China’s Economy,” Yukon Huang, Foreign Affairs, September 14, 2017“Challenging Conventional Wisdom,” Chen Weihua, China Daily, April 28, 2017“Cracking China’s Debt Conundrum,” Yukon Huang, Financial Times, December 6, 2016“Despite Slower Growth, China’s Economy Is Undergoing Major Changes,” NPR Interview with Yukon Huang, January 19, 2016

Chinese Premier to Discuss Economy with Int'l Institution Chiefs

Xinhua
Xinhua
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will hold a roundtable meeting with leaders of six major international economic and financial institutions in Beijing next Tuesday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said on Wednesday.

China’s Former Richest Man Now Banned from Hong Kong’s Business World

Sophia Yan
CNBC
Chinese entrepreneur Li Hejun, who briefly held the title of China’s richest man, was just banned from Hong Kong’s business world.A Hong Kong court ruled to disqualify Li from being a director or being involved with the management of any Hong Kong...

Conversation

07.20.17

Should the U.S. Play Hardball with China on Trade?

Tom Hoffecker, Duncan Innes-Ker & more
Last week, United States President Donald Trump suggested that he is considering leveraging tariffs on Chinese steel imports. Trump’s aggressive posture has left diplomatic experts uneasy amid an already divided U.S. diplomatic house in Beijing, and...

Chinese Umbrella-Sharing Firm Remains Upbeat Despite Losing Most of Its 300,000 Brollies

He Huifeng
South China Morning Post
Just weeks after making 300,000 brollies available to the public via a rental scheme, Sharing E Umbrella announced that most of them had gone missing, news website The Paper reported on Thursday.

Trump and Xi’s First Meeting

Paul Haenle & Ashley J. Tellis from Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
All eyes are on Mar-a-Lago this week, where Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump will meet for the first time. The summit is expected to be heavy on symbolism rather than on concrete deliverables, but the ability to set a...

Sinica Podcast

03.17.17

Big Daddy Dough: Hip-hop and Macroeconomics in China

Kaiser Kuo, Jeremy Goldkorn & more from Sinica Podcast
By day, Andrew Dougherty is a macroeconomist who manages a China research team for Capital Group, one of the world’s largest actively managed mutual funds. By night, he is Big Daddy Dough, creator of an album of parody hip-hop songs that explain...

China’s Economy Gets Off to Strong Start in 2017 as Investment Rebounds

Yawen Chen and Elias Glenn
Reuters
China issued a raft of upbeat data on Tuesday showing the economy got off to a strong start to 2017, supported by strong bank lending, a government infrastructure spree and a much-needed resurgence in private investment. 

Caixin Media

03.03.17

China’s Legislators Take on Zombie Companies, Real Estate

Curbing wasteful socialist-era business practices and taming unruly real estate and lending sectors will take center stage at the annual meeting of China’s legislature, which starts next week, with some also looking for signs of a pickup in economic...

China’s Markets are Tamed— but Not Tempting

Anjie Zheng
Wall Street Journal
The roller-coaster ride may be over, but global investors say that still hasn’t made China attractive for 2017

These Three Major China Themes Will Be Pivotal in 2017

Aidan Yao
South China Morning Post
China’s economic growth target, the depreciation of the yuan and a looming change in several senior Communist Party positions will be important factors

Trump Says China is Not a Market Economy. Here’s Why That is a Big Deal

Chad Bown
Washington Post
In 2001, in China’s view, the U.S. promised it would treat the Asian country as a “market economy” starting in December 2016. Trump has a different idea.

Meet the Ma Family: How Millennials are Changing the Way China Thinks About Money

Engen Tham and Adam Jourdan
Reuters
China's millennials - roughly those aged between 18 and 35 - are embracing debt like never before...

I Think That Chinese Official Really Liked Me!

David Wertime and James Palmer
Foreign Policy
Trump's pick for U.S. Ambassador to Beijing is apparently 'old friends' with President Xi Jinping. That will mean very little...

China Exports Snap Seven-Month Losing Streak as Imports Surge

Bloomberg
China’s exports gained as a cheaper yuan aided foreign purchasing; Imports jumped the most in more than two years on strong demand for raw materials

Xi Jinping to be ‘First Chinese President to Attend Davos Summit’

Li Jing
South China Morning Post
Trip has yet to be officially announced but preparations well underway for Chinese head of state’s visit to World Economic Forum in Switzerland

China Stands to Gain from OPEC Deal

Brian Spegele
Wall Street Journal
Output agreement could boost the country’s oil industry and reduce its reliance on Saudi crude

Reports

11.30.16

Made in China 2025

Jost Wübbeke, Mirjam Meissner, Max J. Zenglein, Jaqueline Ives, and Björn Conrad
Jost Wübbeke & Mirjam Meissner
Mercator Institute for China Studies
This report analyses China’s ambitious plan to build one of the world’s most advanced and competitive economies with the help of innovative manufacturing technologies (“smart manufacturing”). China’s industrial master plan “Made in China 2025” aims...

Animosity in a Burmese Hub Deepens as Chinese Get Richer

Jane Perlez
New York Times
Locals view Chinese as taking advantage of Mandalay’s location and resources. Chinese view locals as beneath them, slow at business and making money.

China is Poised to Benefit from Trump’s Ambiguous Africa Policy

Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden
Huffington Post
By neglecting to propose a clear approach toward the continent, the future U.S. president may end up boosting Beijing

How China’s Government Helps —and Hinders— Innovation

Anil Gupta and Haiyan Wang
Harvard Business Review
Given its ideological leanings, China presents itself as a unique experiment in the power of the state to help the economy become more innovative

U.S. Workers to Lose in China Trade War

Andrew Browne
Wall Street Journal
Some of Donald Trump’s strongest supporters would be hit if he makes good on tariff pledges

Trump, China’s Xi Set Tone of “Mutual Respect” in Phone Call

Te-ping Chen
Wall Street Journal
Mr. Trump’s campaign was marked by heated rhetoric targeting China, but in a phone call, the leaders agreed cooperation was key

As the Election Haze Clears, Trump’s China Conundrum Will Become Clear

Jonathan Fenby
Guardian
President Trump would be well advised to steer away from the rhetoric of Candidate Trump in dealing with the world’s second biggest economy

China Just Won the U.S. Election

James Palmer
Foreign Policy
China’s leaders are looking forward to a President Trump who offers less resistance and more hypocrisy. But Beijing's triumph may cost it in the end...

Trump’s China Wall

Tim Culpan
Bloomberg
For all his rhetoric about building a wall along the Mexican border, Donald J. Trump may build an even bigger barrier against China