Reports

12.01.10

Transforming China: Insights from the Japanese Experience of the 1980s

Papa N'Diaye
Sara Segal-Williams
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
China is poised on the brink of a transition to a service-based economy. The Japanese experience of the 1980s provides several insights about the way to manage such a transition and the downsides to avoid. In particular Japan offers useful insights...

Reports

11.05.10

Staff Report of the People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2010 Article IV Consultation Discussions

International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Two potent forces continue to influence Hong Kong SAR's prospects: the unprecedented monetary policy easing in the United States and the solid domestic recovery, in part driven by spillovers from the Mainland. While the substantial expansion of...

Reports

11.01.10

On the Road to Prosperity? The Economic Geography of China’s National Expressway Network

Mark Roberts, Uwe Deichmann, Bernard Fingleton, Tuo Shi
World Bank
Over the past two decades, China has embarked on an ambitious program of expressway network expansion. By facilitating market integration, this program aims both to promote efficiency at the national level and to contribute to the catch-up of...

Reports

11.01.10

Did Higher Inequality Impede Growth in Rural China?

Dwayne Benjamin, Loren Brandt, and John Giles
World Bank
Since the start of economic reform in the early 1980s, China has experienced plenty of growth and inequality; per capita income has grown nearly 8 percent annually, while the Gini coefficient rose from 0.28 to 0.39. Using a rich longitudinal survey...

Sinica Podcast

09.24.10

Attack of the China Bears

Kaiser Kuo, Gady Epstein & more from Sinica Podcast
As the American economy teeters on the brink of a double-dip recession, “China Bear” sightings have increased significantly. A loosely-knit group of economists and critics who see storm clouds looming over the Chinese economy, China Bears have a...

Reports

09.23.10

China’s Sovereign Wealth Fund: Developments and Policy Implications

Michael F. Martin
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
China’s ruling executive body, the State Council, established the China Investment Corporation (CIC), a sovereign wealth fund, in September 2007 to invest $200 billion of China’s then $1.4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. As with other...

Reports

09.21.10

China’s Steel Industry and Its Impact on the United States: Issues for Congress

Rachel Tang
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
China’s steel industry has grown significantly since the mid-1990s. China is now the world’s largest steelmaker and steel consumer. The majority of Chinese steel has been used to meet domestic demand in China. However, as its steel production...

Reports

09.01.10

Price Dynamics in China

Nathan Porter
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Chinese inflation, particularly non-food inflation, has been surprisingly modest in recent years. The author finds that supply factors, including those captured through upstream foreign commodity and producer prices, have been important drivers of...

Sinica Podcast

08.06.10

China in Africa

Kaiser Kuo, Jeremy Goldkorn & more from Sinica Podcast
The world is abuzz over a number of recent large-scale infrastructure-for-resources deals China has signed in Africa. While some observers see these agreements as a force for good in local economic development, others have gone so far as to call the...

Reports

07.14.10

China and the United States - A Comparison of Green Energy Programs and Policies

Richard J. Campbell
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
China has experienced tremendous economic growth over the last three decades, with an annual average increase in gross domestic product of 9.8 percent during that period. This has led to an increasing demand for energy, spurring China to add an...

Reports

07.01.10

People’s Republic of China: 2010 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion

International Monetary Fund (IMF)
This is the staff report for the 2010 Article IV consultation, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on July 1, 2010, with the officials of the People's Republic of China on economic developments and policies...

Reports

06.01.10

Game-Changing China: Lessons from China about Disruptive Low Carbon Innovation

David Tyfield, Jun Jin, Tyler Rooker
Nesta
Big hydro, big solar photovoltaic, and big wind—these are the usual focus of accounts of low-carbon technologies in China. But a very different type of innovation—ranging from a farm cooperative in Yunnan, to woodchip and corn pellets in rural...

Reports

05.05.10

Restructuring Paper on a Proposed Project Restructuring of Jiangxi Integrated Agricultural Modernization Project

Sara Segal-Williams
World Bank
The development objective of the Jiangxi Integrated Agricultural Modernization Project (JIAMP) for China is to improve the livelihood of the farmers in the project areas through establishment of integrated, sustainable, and market-driven...

Reports

05.04.10

Manufacturing Discord

Daniel Ikenson
Cato Institute
Frictions in the U.S.-China relationship are nothing new, but they have intensified in recent months. This paper examines the U.S.-China economic relationship and some of its high-profile sources of friction, distills the substance from the hype,...

Reports

04.15.10

East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy

Dick K. Nanto
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
The global financial crisis, the end of the Cold War, the rise of China, globalization, free trade agreements, the war on terror, and an institutional approach to keeping the peace are causing dramatic shifts in relationships among countries in East...

Reports

04.01.10

Determinants of China’s Private Consumption: An International Perspective

Kai Guo and Papa N'Diaye
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Gauges the key determinants of China's private consumption in relation to GDP using data on the Chinese economy and evidence from other countries' experiences. The results suggest there is nothing "special" about consumption in...

Reports

03.24.10

Appreciate This: Chinese Currency Rise Will Have a Negligible Effect on the Trade Deficit

Daniel Ikenson
Cato Institute
This report argues that the Obama administration and Congress should consider whether RMB appreciation would even lead to the outcomes they desire—namely, more balanced trade. The evidence does not support their objective. Although the short-term...

Reports

03.01.10

Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China

Emanuele Baldacci, Giovanni Callegari, David Coady, Ding Ding, Manmohan Kumar, Pietro Tommasino, and Jaejoon Woo
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
This paper argues that increasing government social expenditures can make a substantive contribution to increasing household consumption in China. The paper first undertakes an empirical study of the relationship between the savings rate and social...

Reports

02.04.10

The 2009 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Meetings and U.S. Trade Policy in Asia

Michael F. Martin
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
Congress and the Executive Branch have historically identified the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) as potentially important in the promotion of liberalized international trade and investment in Asia, and possibly the rest of the world...

Reports

01.01.10

China: Does Government Health and Education Spending Boost Consumption?

Steven Barnett and Ray Brooks
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Consumption in China is unusually low and has continued to decline as a share of GDP over the past decade. A key policy question is how to reverse this trend, and rebalance growth away from reliance on exports and investment and toward consumption...

Reports

12.11.09

China’s Economic Conditions

Wayne M. Morrison
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
Since the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization thirty years ago, China has been one of the world’s fastest-growing economies and has emerged as a major economic and trade power. The combination of large trade surpluses, FDI flows...

Reports

12.07.09

China’s Currency: A Summary of the Economic Issues

Wayne M. Morrison, Marc Labonte
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
Some Members of Congress charge that China’s policy of accumulating foreign reserves (especially U.S. dollars) to influence the value of its currency constitutes a form of currency manipulation intended to make its exports cheaper and imports into...

Reports

11.25.09

China’s Assistance and Government-Sponsored Investment Activities in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

Thomas Lum
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
In recent years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has bolstered its diplomatic presence and garnered international goodwill in the developing world through financing infrastructure and natural resource development projects, assisting in the...

Reports

11.20.09

China-U.S. Relations: Current Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy

Kerry Dumbaugh
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
The bilateral relationship between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is vitally important, touching on a wide range of areas including, among others, economic policy, security, foreign relations, and human rights. U.S. interests with...

China: The Fragile Superpower

Christian Caryl from New York Review of Books
Some China watchers believe that China’s dramatically rising prosperity will inevitably make the country more open and democratic. President Barack Obama’s highly-scripted trip this week provided little to support that claim. As The Washington Post...

Reports

11.16.09

The Rise of China’s Auto Industry and Its Impact on the U.S. Motor Vehicle Industry

Rachel Tang
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
The automobile industry, a key sector in China’s industrialization and modernization efforts, has been developing rapidly since the 1990s. In recent years, China has become the world’s fastest growing automotive producer. Annual vehicle output has...

Reports

11.01.09

Macroeconomic Implications for Hong Kong SAR of Accommodative U.S. Monetary Policy

Papa N'Diaye
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
This paper discusses the potential macroeconomic implications for Hong Kong SAR of accommodative monetary policy in the United States. It shows, through model simulations, that a resumption of the credit channel in Hong Kong SAR has the potential to...

Reports

11.01.09

Governance and Fund Management in the Chinese Pension System

Gregoro Impavido, Yu-Wei Hu, and Xiaohong Li
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The Chinese pension system is highly fragmented and decentralized, with governance standards, pension fund management practices, their regulation and supervision varying considerably both across the funded components of the Chinese pension system...

China’s Boom: The Dark Side in Photos

Orville Schell from New York Review of Books
I have seen some woeful scenes of industrial apocalypse and pollution in my travels throughout China, but there are very few images that remain vividly in my mind. This is why the photographs of Lu Guang are so important. A fearless documentary...

Reports

09.01.09

What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises

Abdul Abiad, Ravi Balakrishnan, Petya Koeva Brooks, Daniel Leigh, and Irina Tytell
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
This paper investigates the medium-term behavior of output following banking crises, and its association with pre- and post-crisis conditions and policies. The authors find that output tends to be depressed substantially following banking crises,...

Reports

09.01.09

What Drives China's Interbank Market?

Nathan Porter and TengTeng Xu
Sara Segal-Williams
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Interest rates in China comprise a mix of both market determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (lending and deposit rates), reflecting China's gradual process of interest rate liberalization. We...

Reports

07.16.09

East Asia’s Foreign Exchange Rate Policies

Michael F. Martin
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
Financial authorities in East Asia have adopted a variety of foreign exchange rate policies, ranging from Hong Kong’s currency board system which links the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S. dollar, to the “independently floating” exchange rates of Japan...

Reports

07.01.09

Broad Money Demand and Asset Substitution in China

Ge Wu
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Recent changes to China's financial system, in particular ongoing interest rate liberalization, gradual movement toward a more flexible exchange rate regime, and rapid development of capital markets, have changed substantially the environment...

Reports

06.17.09

Report on the Tri-Provincial and Hubei-Xiaogan-Xiangfan Highway Projects

World Bank
This is a report on the performance of two highway projects in China which were financed by a loan from the World Bank. The Tri-Provincial Highway Project, which links Gansu, Ningxi, and Inner Mongolia, and the Hubei-Xiaogan-Xiangfan Highway Project...

Reports

06.03.09

China and the Global Financial Crisis: Implications for the United States

Wayne M. Morrison
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
Over the past several years, China has enjoyed one of the world’s fastest growing economies and has been a major contributor to world economic growth. However, the current global financial crisis threatens to significantly slow China’s economy...

Reports

05.01.09

China’s $1.5 Trillion Bet: Understanding China’s External Portfolio

Brad W. Setser
He Jianan
Council on Foreign Relations
China is now by far the United States’ largest creditor. Its treasury portfolio recently surpassed that of Japan’s, and it has long held more agency (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) bonds than any other country. Never before has a nation as poor as China...

Reports

04.02.09

Taiwan-U.S. Relations: Developments and Policy Implications

Kerry Dumbaugh
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
Policy toward and support for Taiwan are a key element in U.S. relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and an important component of U.S. policy in Asia. Recently, pessimistic observers see growing PRC-Taiwan ties eroding U.S. influence...

Reports

03.31.09

Asia Pacfic Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the 2008 Meetings in Lima, Peru

Michael F. Martin
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
Congress and the Executive Branch have historically identified the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) as an important organization to help promote the U.S. goal of liberalizing international trade and investment in Asia, and possibly the rest...

Reports

03.17.09

The Tibetan Policy Act of 2002: Background and Implementation

Kerry Dumbaugh
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
U.S. policy on Tibet is governed by the Tibetan Policy Act of 2002 (TPA), enacted as part of the Foreign Relations Authorization Act of FY2003 (P.L. 107-228). In addition to establishing a number of U.S. principles with respect to human rights,...

Reports

02.25.09

China’s Foreign Aid Activities in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

Thomas Lum, Hannah Fischer, Julissa Gomez Granger, Anne Leland
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
In the past several years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has bolstered its diplomatic presence and garnered international goodwill through its financing of infrastructure and natural resource development projects, assistance in the carrying...

Reports

02.13.09

The Pivotal Relationship: How Obama Should Engage China

Liu Xuecheng Robert Oxnam
EastWest Institute
Providing their respective hopes and expectations on what they would like to see in the Obama administration’s China policy are Liu Xuecheng and Robert Oxnam, who both envision opportunities for reframing the China-U.S. relationship in a way that...

Reports

01.07.09

Taiwan-U.S. Relations: Recent Developments and Their Policy Implications

Kerry Dumbaugh
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
U.S.-Taiwan relations have undergone important changes, sparked in part by the increasing complexity of Taiwan’s democratic political environment and the continued insistence of Beijing that the separately ruled Taiwan is a part of the People’s...

Reports

01.01.09

Building Bridges: China’s Growing Role as Infrastructure Financier for Sub-Saharan Africa

Vivien Foster, William Butterfield, Chuan Chen, and Nataliya Pushak
World Bank
Over the last decade Chinese investment in Africa has grown considerably. This includes the financing of large infrastructural projects in many African countries. Although Chinese finance of African infrastructure is important, there is not much...

Reports

01.01.09

Yen Bloc or Yuan Bloc: An Analysis of Currency Arrangements in East Asia

Kazuko Shirono
Sara Segal-Williams
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
This paper examines the role of Japan against that of China in the exchange rate regime in East Asia in light of growing interest in forming a currency union in the region. The analysis suggests that currency unions with China tend to generate...

Reports

12.19.08

Sino-Japanese Relations: Issues for U.S. Policy

Emma Chanlett-Avery, Kerry Dumbaugh, William H. Cooper
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
After a period of diplomatic rancor earlier this decade, Japan and China have demonstrably improved their bilateral relationship. The emerging detente includes breakthrough agreements on territorial disputes, various high-level exchanges, and...

Reports

12.01.08

The Macroeconomic Impact of Healthcare Financing Alternatives: Reform Options for Hong Kong SAR

Dennis Botman and Nathan Porter
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
With much healthcare publicly funded, Hong Kong's rapidly aging population will significantly raise fiscal pressure over coming decades. The authors ask what the implications are of meeting these costs by public funding, or private funding...

Reports

12.01.08

The Impact of Introducing a Minimum Wage on Business Cycle Volatility: A Structural Analysis for Hong Kong SAR

Nathan Porter and Francis Vitek
Sara Segal-Williams
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
We study the impact of a minimum wage on business cycle volatility, depending upon its coverage and adjustment mechanism. As with other small open economies, Hong Kong SAR is vulnerable to external shocks, with its exchange rate regime precluding...

Reports

12.01.08

Hong Kong SAR Economic Integration With the Pearl River Delta

Hongyi Chen and Olaf Unteroberdoerster
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Hong Kong SAR's economic integration with the Mainland has primarily taken place in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Taking stock of integration trends, this paper discusses key implications for ensuring economic benefits of further integration are...

Reports

10.08.08

U.S. Foreign Aid to East and South Asia: Selected Recipients

Thomas Lum
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
Since the war on terrorism began in 2001 and the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) and Global HIV/AIDS Initiative (GHAI) were launched in 2004, the United States has increased foreign aid spending dramatically in some regions, including East and...

Reports

09.17.08

Taiwan: Overall Developments and Policy Issues in the 109th Congress

Kerry Dumbaugh
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
U.S. officials saw relations with Taiwan as especially troubled during the 109th Congress in 2005-2006, beset by the increasing complexity and unpredictability of Taiwan’s democratic political environment as well as by PRC actions underscoring...

Reports

09.01.08

Creating Financial Harmony: Lessons for China 

James A. Dorn
Cato Institute
The current turmoil in global financial markets, which began with the American subprime crisis in 2007, has put market liberalism in a bad light. But it was the socialization of risk—not private free markets—that precipitated the crisis. This...

Reports

08.24.08

Energy Interests and Alliances: China, America and Africa

Angelica Austin, Danila Bochkarev, and Willem van der Geest
EastWest Institute
According to conventional wisdom, the United States and China are locked in a high-stakes competition for energy resources around the world, particularly in Africa. Against the backdrop of highly volatile oil prices, mounting concerns about global...

Reports

07.21.08

China’s “Hot Money” Problems

Michael F. Martin, Wayne M. Morrison
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
China has experienced a sharp rise in the inflow of so-called “hot money,” foreign capital entering the country supposedly seeking short-term profits, especially in 2008. Chinese estimates of the amount of “hot money” in China vary from $500 billion...

Reports

06.30.08

Tibet: Problems, Prospects, and U.S. Policy

Kerry Dumbaugh
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
On March 10, 2008, a series of demonstrations began in Lhasa and other Tibetan regions of China to mark the 49th anniversary of an unsuccessful Tibetan uprising against Chinese rule in 1959. The demonstrations appeared to begin peacefully with small...

Reports

06.01.08

Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?

Marcos Chamon and Eswar Prasad
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
From 1995 to 2005, the average urban household saving rate in China rose by 7 percentage points, to ¼ of disposable income. The authors use household-level data to explain the postponing of consumption despite rapid income growth. Saving rates have...

Reports

04.01.08

Real and Financial Sector Linkages in China and India

Jahangir Aziz
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
In the spirit of what is known as business cycle accounting, this paper finds that the investment wedge—the gap between household rates of intertemporal substitution and the marginal product of capital—is large and quantitatively significant in...

Reports

04.01.08

A Real Model of Transitional Growth and Competitiveness in China

Leslie Lipschitz, Céline Rochon, and Geneviève Verdier
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The authors present a stylized real model of the Chinese economy with the objective of explaining two features: (1) domestic production is highly competitive in the sense that an accumulation of capital that raises the marginal product of labor...

Reports

03.01.08

Hong Kong SAR as a Financial Center for Asia: Trends and Implications

Cynthia Leung and Olaf Unteroberdoerster
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
We document Hong Kong SAR's evolving role as an international financial center in the Asia region, the importance of the growing special link with China as well as supply-side advantages, and outline the scope for future financial services...

Reports

02.13.08

How Large is China’s Economy? Does it Matter?

Wayne M. Morrison, Michael F. Martin
Peony Lui
Congressional Research Service
China’s rapid economic growth since 1979 has transformed it into a major economic power. Over the past few years, many analysts have contended that China could soon overtake the United States to become the world’s largest economy, based on estimates...

Reports

12.01.07

Africa-China-U.S. Trilateral Dialogue

"The Brenthurst Foundation, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Council on Foreign Relations, Leon H. Sullivan Foundation
He Jianan
Council on Foreign Relations
Over the course of the last thirteen months, delegates from Africa, China, and the United States have met three times in an effort to identify strategies of cooperation among their respective nations with the goal of accelerating economic...