Conversation

10.11.22

On the Eve of the Party Congress, What’s Ahead for China’s Economy?

Guonan Ma, Ryan Hass & more
Three years of zero-COVID and a lingering property crisis have taken a toll on China’s economy. What are the prospects for an economic turnaround in the coming months? And if it doesn’t come to pass, what will a slowing economy spell for the Party’s...

China’s Economy is Slowing and That’s Really Bad News for Africa

Eric Olander & Jeremy Stevens
Pretty much every major economic indicator suggests that the Chinese economy will continue its downward momentum in 2019. Industrial production, retail sales, and even the once red-hot property market are all showing real signs of weakness. Some...

Viewpoint

12.21.18

A Look Back at China in 2018

Kyle Hutzler
In 2018, the outlook for China regarding its politics, economy, and relationship with the United States darkened considerably. The removal of presidential term limits and Xi Jinping’s interactions with the Trump administration prompted rare...

India as China’s Secret Business Weapon

Sintia Radu
As India rises on the global economic stage, foreign players are increasingly attracted to the seemingly unlimited and unexplored potential of the South Asian giant, which offers a market of 1.3 billion potential consumers.

As Trump’s Tariffs Start to Bite, China Pledges It’ll Keep Its Economy Stable

Huileng Tan
CNBC
In a statement carried by China’s state media after a meeting of the Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, Beijing said it will take targeted measures to solve issues in the economy. The Chinese economy is facing “some...

China Stimulates Again, but Don’t Expect Fireworks

Nathaniel Taplin
Wall Street Journal
The country’s main stock benchmark was up 1.6% Tuesday, after a call from China’s cabinet overnight for more fiscal spending, abundant liquidity, and—perhaps most significant—support for the “reasonable” fundraising needs of local governments’...

China’s Effort to Control Debt Loses Steam

Chao Deng and Lingling Wei
Wall Street Journal
China is letting up on its drive to keep a lid on debt growth as it faces a softening economy at home and escalating trade tensions with the U.S.

China’s Economic Numbers Have a Credibility Problem

Enda Curran
Bloomberg
China’s gross domestic product grew 6.8 percent in the first quarter, smack on its pace in the preceding quarter, which was unchanged from the quarter before that.

China Quietly Releases 2017 Provincial GDP Figures

Salvatore Babones
Forbes
Provincial GDP figures don't add up to the reported national growth rate.

China Stocks at Risk of Outpacing Fundamentals

Gabriel Wildau and Emma Dunkley
Financial Times
As the Chinese stock market’s disastrous 2015 boom-and-bust fades from memory, investors are in a mood to buy. Chinese stocks both on the mainland and in Hong Kong outperformed the S&P 500 last year, as economic growth accelerated for the...

China Reports Its Fastest Economic Growth In 7 Years

NPR
China is reporting its fastest economic growth in seven years, saying its gross domestic product grew by 6.9 percent in 2017. 

China’s Sports Industry Is Allegedly Growing Faster Than the National Economy

August Rick
Forbes
The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics announced official data on the growth of China’s sport’s industry for 2016 on Saturday, showing a total output of 1.9 trillion yuan ($295 billion), and an 11.1% growth that outpaced the recovering national...

China Property Price Growth Slows to 21-Month Low

Hudson Lockett
Financial Times
Growth in the cost of new housing in China decelerated for a twelfth straight month in November, according to official figures, marking the slowest rise since early 2016.

Early China Indicators Signal That Economy Cooled This Month

Bloomberg News
Bloomberg
Confidence among China’s sales managers and steel producers waned in November, matching the mood among international investors, while sentiment among small businesses improved, according to the earliest available indicators.

China Investment Growth Slows, Industrial Output Misses Expectations

Reuters
CNBC
China’s fixed-asset investment growth slowed to 7.3 percent in the January-October period, and came in slightly below market expectations.

China Recovery Pushes Greenhouse Emissions to Global Record

Tobias Buck and Lucy Hornby
Financial Times
Stronger Chinese economic growth will push global greenhouse gas emissions to a record high in 2017 after remaining flat for three years, dashing tentative hopes of a turning point in the world’s efforts to curb climate change.

China Harnesses Big Data to Buttress the Power of the State

James Kynge
Financial Times
The sinologist Simon Leys has described consuming China’s communist literature as akin to “munching rhinoceros sausages”. But amid the leathery verbiage generated by the 19th Communist party congress there were also some extraordinarily piquant...

Inside China’s Secret ‘Magic Weapon’ for Worldwide Influence

James Kynge, Lucy Hornby, and Jamil...
Financial Times
On the Google map of Beijing there is an empty quarter, an urban block next to the Communist party’s leadership compound in which few of the buildings are named. At street level, the aura of anonymity is confirmed. Uniformed guards stand by grand...

China’s New Antipollution Push Could Cool Its Growth Engine

Keith Bradsher
New York Times
China’s minister for environmental protection said Monday that even tougher measures will be coming. 

Chinese Property Boom Props up Xi’s Hopes for the Economy

Tom Hancock
Financial Times
Ocean Flower Island is a vision of luxury, Chinese-style. A man-made archipelago off the coast of the tropical island of Hainan in the South China Sea, it will boast thousands of apartments, 28 museums and 58 hotels including one which is “7-star...

China’s Reform Hopefuls Watch for Names. Only One May Matter.

Keith Bradsher
New York Times
A decade ago, this city in southeastern China had a reputation as one of the country’s grimmest, with smoggy skies, chronic traffic jams and streams so foul that they had to be paved over to contain the stench.

China Is Quietly Reshaping the World

Anja Manuel
Atlantic
The Pakistani town of Gwadar was until recently filled with the dust-colored cinderblock houses of about 50,000 fishermen. Ringed by cliffs, desert, and the Arabian Sea, it was at the forgotten edge of the earth. Now it’s one centerpiece of China’s...

The Human Cost of China’s Economic Reforms

Robin Brant
BBC
Mr Yu is worried that millions of workers the Chinese government plans to lay off from failing state owned companies will be “abandoned” like he says he was 15 years ago.

How China's Financial Cracks Could Spread

Aaron Back
Wall Street Journal
Can financial turmoil in China play havoc with the rest of the world? It has already happened.

China's Pollution Crackdown Is Gaining Momentum

Bloomberg News
Bloomberg
That political will overlaps with an economic need to rein in surplus production of steel, aluminum and other basic materials after years of over-investment. How and when that capacity gets replaced will be a key factor in the economy’s performance...

Books

09.27.17

Cracking the China Conundrum

Yukon Huang
China’s rise is altering global power relations, reshaping economic debates, and commanding tremendous public attention. Despite extensive media and academic scrutiny, the conventional wisdom about China’s economy is often wrong. Cracking the China Conundrum provides a holistic and contrarian view of China’s major economic, political, and foreign policy issues.Yukon Huang trenchantly addresses widely accepted yet misguided views in the analysis of China’s economy. He examines arguments about the causes and effects of China’s possible debt and property market bubbles, trade and investment relations with the West, the links between corruption and political liberalization in a growing economy, and Beijing’s more assertive foreign policies. Huang explains that such misconceptions arise in part because China’s economic system is unprecedented in many ways—namely because it’s driven by both the market and state—which complicates the task of designing accurate and adaptable analysis and research. Further, China’s size, regional diversity, and uniquely decentralized administrative system pose difficulties for making generalizations and comparisons from micro to macro levels when trying to interpret China’s economic state accurately.This book not only interprets the ideologies that experts continue building misguided theories upon, but also examines the contributing factors to this puzzle. Cracking the China Conundrum provides an enlightening and corrective viewpoint on several major economic and political foreign policy concerns currently shaping China’s economic environment. —Oxford University Press{chop}Related Reading:“What the West Gets Wrong About China’s Economy,” Yukon Huang, Foreign Affairs, September 14, 2017“Challenging Conventional Wisdom,” Chen Weihua, China Daily, April 28, 2017“Cracking China’s Debt Conundrum,” Yukon Huang, Financial Times, December 6, 2016“Despite Slower Growth, China’s Economy Is Undergoing Major Changes,” NPR Interview with Yukon Huang, January 19, 2016

S&P Downgrades China, Says Rising Debt Is Stoking Economic, Financial Risks

Elias Glenn
Reuters
S&P’s one-notch downgrade to A+ from AA- comes as Beijing grapples with the challenges of containing financial risks stemming from years of credit-fueled stimulus to meet ambitious government economic growth targets.

China's Path out of Poverty Can Never Be Repeated at Scale by a Country Again

Zheping Huang, Tripti Lahiri
Quartz
Since China began its market reforms in the late 1970s, it has lifted more than 800 million people out of poverty, slashing the rate from nearly 90% in 1981 to under 2%, as measured by the World Bank’s latest spending benchmark.

China, Like U.S., Struggles to Revive Industrial Heartland

Michael Schuman
New York Times
The hulking, brown–brick industrial plants lining the roads were once the backbone of this gritty city. Today, they are outdated and unwanted, and the region is one of the Chinese economy’s most troubled. 

China Says Economy Unaffected by Environmental Inspections

South China Morning Post
China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection said that recent environmental inspections did not hurt the country’s economy and blamed some ”inappropriate methods” conducted by local authorities for causing short–term market dislocation.

Exclusive: China's Belt and Road Acquisitions Surge despite Outbound Capital Crackdown

Kane Wu and Sumeet Chatterjee
Reuters
Mergers and acquisitions by Chinese companies in countries that are part of the Belt and Road initiative are soaring, even as Beijing cracks down on China’s acquisitive conglomerates to restrict capital outflows.

A ‘Spectacular’ Trend Is Transforming the World’s Second Largest Economy, Stephen Roach Says

Stephanie Landsman
CNBC
China's economy is a lot more resilient than the West thinks, according to one of Wall Street's most distinguished voices on the region.

China Shadow Banking Is Slowing amid More Coordinated Government Measures, Says Moody’s

Huileng Tan
CNBC
Growth in shadow banking in China is slowing due to coordinated government action to contain systemic financial risks, a development that will benefit banks, although it will also bring adjustment risks.

Why China’s New Cargo Space Ship Is So Important

Namrata Goswami
Diplomat
China’s first indigenously built Tianzhou cargo ship, which is being launched between April 20 and 24, is a major accomplishment.

China Rolls Back Taxes by $55 Billion to Encourage Consumer Spending and Boost Growth

CNBC
China is cutting taxes this year by 380 billion yuan ($55 billion) in efforts to encourage spending and boost growth.

China Plan to Create New Shenzhen Spurs Speculative Rampage

Lisa Pham and Jenny Yu
Bloomberg
Within 24 hours of Saturday’s announcement that the government would create the Xiongan area in Hebei province—in the same spirit that Shenzhen and Shanghai’s Pudong was built—hordes of prospective buyers had thronged to the region.

Nation Leads Asia in Growth Vitality

China Daily
Despite setbacks to regional economic integration, China maintained a 6.7 percent growth rate last year and contributed 33.2 percent to global economic growth, ranking the highest among all world economies.

China Just Held Its National People’s Congress. Here Are Three Key Points.

Lynette Ong
Washington Post
For decades, China’s “Two Sessions” (lianghui) each spring have offered a glimpse into the policies and priorities of China’s Communist Party (CCP).

Caixin Media

03.03.17

China’s Legislators Take on Zombie Companies, Real Estate

Curbing wasteful socialist-era business practices and taming unruly real estate and lending sectors will take center stage at the annual meeting of China’s legislature, which starts next week, with some also looking for signs of a pickup in economic...

China’s Growing Obesity Problem

Benjamin Shobert
Forbes
A recent study published shows that China can now lay claim to having a greater percentage of obese men and women than in the United States.

China’s Economy Grows Strongly, Yet Central Bank Eases Policy

Keith Bradsher
New York Times
China’s economy firmly hit its growth target last year, but this is China, where figures are sometimes doubted and where economists look for signs of strain underneath the numbers.

Asian Shares Mixed as Investors Eye Trump’s Inauguration

Aza Wee Sile
CNBC
Asian markets were a mixed bag on Friday after China’s latest set of economic data suggest the economy is recovering, even as risk sentiment sours ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration

Viewpoint

01.19.17

Do We Want to Live in China’s World?

Robert Daly
Each weekday morning, I cross D.C.’s National Mall and pass a sign on Constitution Avenue bearing an epigram by the U.S. architect Daniel Burnham: Make No Little Plans. And every morning, these words make me think not of Burnham’s 20th century...

The Chinese Government Finally Admitted That Its Economic Data Was Made Up

Zheping Huang
Quartz
For many who have long believed that China’s economic growth figures seemed too good—and tidy—to be true, they now have official confirmation of that skepticism.

Books

01.11.17

Taiwan’s China Dilemma

Syaru Shirley Lin
China and Taiwan share one of the world’s most complex international relationships. Although similar cultures and economic interests have promoted an explosion of economic ties between them since the late 1980s, these ties have not led to an improved political relationship, let alone progress toward the unification that both governments once claimed to seek. In addition, Taiwan’s recent Sunflower Movement succeeded in obstructing deeper economic ties with China. Why has Taiwan’s policy toward China been so inconsistent?Taiwan’s China Dilemma explains the divergence between the development of economic and political relations across the Taiwan Strait through the interplay of national identity and economic interests. Using primary sources, opinion surveys, and interviews with Taiwanese opinion leaders, Syaru Shirley Lin paints a vivid picture of one of the most unsettled and dangerous relationships in the contemporary world, and illustrates the growing backlash against economic liberalization and regional economic integration around the world. —Stanford University Press{chop}

China Should Set More Flexible GDP Growth Target in 2017: Central Bank Adviser

Reuters
China should set a more flexible economic growth target this year to create more room for reforms, a central bank adviser told the official Xinhua news agency, suggesting a range of 6.0 to 7.0 percent versus 6.5 to 7.0 percent in 2016. China has...

These Three Major China Themes Will Be Pivotal in 2017

Aidan Yao
South China Morning Post
China’s economic growth target, the depreciation of the yuan and a looming change in several senior Communist Party positions will be important factors

Trump’s Misleading Comparison of the U.S. and Chinese Economies

Ian Talley
Wall Street Journal
Emerging markets run faster than advanced economies because of the rule of diminishing returns

Economists Question China’s Consistent Growth Numbers

Mark Magnier
Wall Street Journal
China says its economy grew 6.7% for the third consecutive quarter

Unlike the West, China and India Embrace Globalization

Bruce Stokes
Quartz
In contrast with the developed West, globalization and economic integration remain popular in the world’s two largest developing countries—India and China.

Is China Building a Road to Ruin?

Andrew Browne
Wall Street Journal
China beats the U.S. on infrastructure but at a heavy cost

Goldman Sachs: China Signaling Further Stimulus on the Way

Leslie Shaffer
CNBC
The bank pointed to China’s State Council meeting this week, which discussed plans to streamline the approval process for investment projects.

In China, Economic Data Highlights Growing Divide Between Regions

Mark Magnier
Wall Street Journal
Provinces’ first-half figures for GDP growth also have revived the debate over the country’s statistics.

Caixin Media

06.30.16

Chinese Investment in Euro Soccer Soars to Meet President’s Goals

Chinese companies are buying soccer teams across Europe, echoing the Beijing government’s ambitious plan to turn the nation into a soccer powerhouse.The powerhouse plan, which has backing from President Xi Jinping, has led to nine deals inked by...

China’s Li Sees Increasing Uncertainties After Brexit Vote

Bloomberg
Sill, Premier Li Keqiang argues his nation has ample tools to meet challenges facing the economy.

Sinica Podcast

06.20.16

Arthur Kroeber vs. the Conventional Wisdom

Kaiser Kuo, Jeremy Goldkorn & more
In this episode of Sinica, we present an in-depth interview with Arthur Kroeber, the founding partner and head of research for Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent global economic research firm, and the editor-in-chief of its journal, China Economic...

Conversation

05.24.16

How Much Debt Is Too Much in China?

Yukon Huang, Houze Song & more
In the first quarter of 2016, Chinese debt rose to 237 percent of GDP—a level comparable to that of the U.S. or the Eurozone and yet much larger than that of most developing economies, according to analysis by The Financial Times. Additionally,...

Media

05.12.16

The End of China’s Economic Miracle? A Discussion with ‘Financial Times’ Writers

George Soros, Jamil Anderlini & more
On April 20, 2016, a panel of Financial Times correspondents and editors with China experience, joined by financier and occasional FT columnist George Soros, discussed rural-to-urban migration, wage growth, real estate ups and downs, the increasing...