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Is the 2012 China Stimulus Some Kind of Unicorn?

Wang Tao at UBS thinks it is not really real: Well, that is what we call a bit of make-believe. Sure, the weak August data seem to have prompted more policy actions by various government agencies and we expect better implementation and coordination as well. But a closer look at the newly announced approvals shows that these projects have been approved in the past 2-3 months, some as early as April and May, and most of these projects are part of the local governments’ 12th Five Year Plans. In other words, many readers believed that the government suddenly rolled out a RMB 1 trillion stimulus package in the past week ahead of the weak August data, but the truth is that the NDRC just suddenly PUBLISHED the project approvals of the past few months, perhaps to demonstrate that the government’s policy support in the form of infrastructure investment has already been underway.

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Topics: 
Business, Economy