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05.24.16

How Much Debt Is Too Much in China?

Yukon Huang, Houze Song & more
In the first quarter of 2016, Chinese debt rose to 237 percent of GDP—a level comparable to that of the U.S. or the Eurozone and yet much larger than that of most developing economies, according to analysis by The Financial Times. Additionally,...

Media

05.12.16

The End of China’s Economic Miracle? A Discussion with ‘Financial Times’ Writers

George Soros, Jamil Anderlini & more
On April 20, 2016, a panel of Financial Times correspondents and editors with China experience, joined by financier and occasional FT columnist George Soros, discussed rural-to-urban migration, wage growth, real estate ups and downs, the increasing...

Books

04.18.16

China’s Future

David Shambaugh
China’s future arguably is the most consequential question in global affairs. Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations. The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosper.Will China be successful in implementing a new wave of transformational reforms that could last decades and make it the world’s leading superpower? Or will its leaders shy away from the drastic changes required because the regime’s power is at risk? If so, will that lead to prolonged stagnation or even regime collapse? Might China move down a more liberal or even democratic path? Or will China instead emerge as a hard, authoritarian, and aggressive superstate?In this new book, David Shambaugh argues that these potential pathways are all possibilities—but they depend on key decisions yet to be made by China’s leaders, different pressures from within Chinese society, as well as actions taken by other nations. Assessing these scenarios and their implications, he offers a thoughtful and clear study of China’s future for all those seeking to understand the country’s likely trajectory over the coming decade and beyond. —Polity Press{chop}

Caixin Media

02.19.16

Central Bank Governor on Reforming the Exchange Rate, Adopting a Digital Currency

Recently Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, had an interview with Caixin and talked about the yuan exchange rate regime reform, macro-prudential policy framework, digital currency, and other topics...

How Xi Jinping Sees the World ... and Why

Jeffrey A. Bader
Brookings Institution
Large national transformations are more often the product of historical forces than the writ of one powerful leader.

China: Scaling The World’s Highest Innovation Peaks

Vikram Jandhyala
TechCrunch
The word “innovation” was mentioned 71 times in a communiqué after the Chinese Communist Party’s recent plenary meeting. 

Three Labour Rights Leaders Detained In China As Worker Unrest Grows

Neil Connor
Telegraph
Activist detentions follow a growth in discontent among workers affected by China's stalling economy...

Notes on the China I’m Leaving Behind

ANDREW JACOBS
New York Times
I GOT together at a restaurant the other night with some Chinese and expatriate friends.

China's Obesity Epidemic: Teaching Children to 'Eat a Rainbow'

Lucy Luo
Guardian
The rise in diabetes in China could bankrupt the country’s healthcare system, says a medical expert.

China Seeks to Remove Provincial Barriers to Trade

Sue-Lin Wong
Reuters
China will accelerate reforms to remove internal barriers to both foreign and domestic trade.

Media

11.13.15

The Real Reason for China’s Two-Child Policy: Millions of New Consumers

Two fictitious Chinese brothers are born in Tuanjiehu Maternity Hospital in the Chinese capital of Beijing. Let’s say the first was born already, in late 2015; his parents nickname him Laoda, meaning “oldest child.” That’s because they have hopes...

How Smartphones are Solving One of China’s Biggest Mysteries

Ana Swanson
Washington Post
For decades, China has been engaged in a building boom of a scale that is hard to wrap your mind around.

China’s Communist Party Approves Five-Year Plan

Mark Magnier
Wall Street Journal
Economists will be watching to see whether it sets ambitious or moderate growth targets.

Li Floats New China Five-Year Growth Minimum of Around 6.5%

Bloomberg
China’s goal of a “moderately prosperous society” refers to policy makers’ plan to double per-capita income by 2020 from 2010 levels.

How Hungry Is China for the World's Food?

John W. Schoen
China's transformation from an agrarian economy remains a work in progress...

Caixin Media

10.20.15

Moving 2 Million People for Beijing’s Urban Reset

Nearly 2 million Beijing residents will be moved to the city’s outlying districts from the center by 2020 as part of a massive urban revamp designed to better control people, traffic, and smog.The movers include up to 1 million government workers...

China’s Middle Class Has Overtaken the U.S.’s to Become the World’s Largest

Zheping Huang
Quartz
China has crossed another economic threshold.

Caixin Media

10.13.15

Insider Trading Is Hindering Development of Stock Market

A series of investigations into apparent market violations emerged after the recent stock market turmoil, bringing down Zhang Yujun, an assistant chairman at the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC); Cheng Boming, general manager of CITIC...

Once the Biggest Buyer, China Starts Dumping U.S. Government Debt

Min Zeng and Lingling Wei
Wall Street Journal
Shift in Treasury holdings is latest symptom of emerging-market slowdown hitting global economy.

Putting the Past Behind in China

Chris Horton
New York Times
The days of China’s relying on export manufacturing and infrastructure construction as drivers of economic growth are gone.

Troubles for the ‘China Model’

DANIEL A. BELL
Wall Street Journal
Meritocracy has worked for Beijing, but to survive, the system needs more openness.

Reports

10.01.15

China’s Next Opportunity: Sustainable Economic Transition

Anders Hove, Merisha Enoe, and Kate Gordon
Paulson Institute
China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, also known as Jing-Jin-Ji, presents a compelling opportunity to highlight the potential—and the challenges—in transitioning to a more sustainable economic growth model. The Chinese government has prioritized the...

China's Xi Says Economy Resilient, Has Huge Potential: State Radio

Judy Hua and Jake Spring
Reuters
China's economy is resilient and has the capacity to maintain a long-term medium-to-high growth rate...

Bearish Bets Multiply as China Slows

Henry Sender
Financial Times
A slowdown in China is harder for its trading partners and manufacturing competitors than it is for China itself.

China Surprises With 7% Growth in Second Quarter

Mark Magnier
Wall Street Journal
China’s growth remained at 7% in the second quarter, a level economists had thought would be hard to reach amid broad signs that Beijing’s policies to jump-start the economy hadn’t taken hold. 

Sinica Podcast

06.15.15

The People’s Republic of Cruiseland

Kaiser Kuo, Jeremy Goldkorn & more from Sinica Podcast
We have enough favorite writers on China that we’ve had to develop a sophisticated classification system just to keep track of everyone. That said, one of our hardest to place within the long-form taxonomy is Chris Beam, who you may have heard on...

China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

Martin Ford
New York Times
China may face a staggering challenge as it attempts to adapt to the realities of a new age.

The $6.5 Trillion China Rally That’s Making Stock-Market History

Kyoungwha Kim
Bloomberg
 The sum is the value created in just 12 months of trading on Chinese stock exchanges, a rally some say has gone too far.

Reports

06.08.15

China’s “New Normal”: Structural Change, Better Growth, and Peak Emissions

Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
China has grown rapidly—often at double-digit rates—for more than three decades by following a strategy of high investment, strong export orientation, and energy-intensive manufacturing. While this growth lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty,...

Media

05.29.15

Is the Shanghai Stock Market Bubble Finally Bursting?

David Wertime
A customer strolls into a bookstore, goes the popular Chinese joke, and tells the salesperson: “I’m looking for a book with no killers, but much bloodshed; with no love, but great regret; with no spies, but constant paranoia. Can you make a...

China’s Best Economic Forecaster Says Economy Will Rebound Again This Year

Angie Lau
Bloomberg
The central bank cut the benchmark interest rate a third time in six months. 

Media

04.14.15

Henry Paulson: ‘Dealing with China’

Eric Fish from Asia Blog
Speaking at Asia Society New York on April 13 with New Yorker correspondent Evan Osnos, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson explained that it’s impossible to predict the timing or magnitude of a financial crisis, but any country with...

Lee Kuan Yew, the Man Who Remade Asia

Orville Schell
Wall Street Journal
He preached ‘Asian values’ and turned a tiny, poor city-state into an astonishing economic success. Is Lee’s ‘Singapore model’ the future of Asia?

Media

03.26.15

Brother, Can You Spare a Renminbi?

Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian
Who deserves to be poor in modern China? One man in China’s southern Zhejiang province certainly seemed sympathetic: Each day, he pushed himself along the street on a homemade wooden skateboard, his apparently paralyzed legs tucked under his body,...

Books

03.16.15

The China Boom

Ho-fung Hung
Many thought China’s rise would fundamentally remake the global order. Yet, much like other developing nations, the Chinese state now finds itself entrenched in a status quo characterized by free trade and American domination. Through a cutting-edge historical, sociological, and political analysis, Ho-fung Hung exposes the competing interests and economic realities that temper the dream of Chinese supremacy—forces that are stymieing growth throughout the global South. Hung focuses on four common misconceptions about China’s boom: that China could undermine orthodoxy by offering an alternative model of growth; that China is radically altering power relations between the East and the West; that China is capable of diminishing the global power of the United States; and that the Chinese economy would restore the world’s wealth after the 2008 financial crisis. His work reveals how much China depends on the existing order and how the interests of the Chinese elites maintain these ties. Through its perpetuation of the dollar standard and its addiction to U.S. Treasury bonds, China remains bound to the terms of its own prosperity, and its economic practices of exploiting debt bubbles are destined to fail. Dispelling many of the world’s fantasies and fears, Hung warns of a post-miracle China that will grow increasingly assertive in attitude while remaining constrained in capability. —Columbia University Press{chop}

China Lowers 2015 Economic Growth Target to Around 7 Percent

Xinhua
The growth target is lower than the 7.4-percent economic growth in 2014, its weakest annual expansion since 1990.

Conversation

01.26.15

Does Size Matter? (In the U.S. and Chinese Economies, That Is...)

Taisu Zhang
Last week, President Obama’s State of the Union Address touted a U.S. economic recovery. Meanwhile, China’s economic growth is slowing and Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, has said that China’s economy, contrary to overseas...

As Growth Slows, China Pins Hopes on Consumer Spending

Alexandra Stevenson
New York Times
The economy increased by 7.3 percent in the last quarter of 2014 and 7.4 percent for the full year, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. While many countries would welcome such growth, the rate fell short of the government’s...

Features

12.10.14

Why Beijing’s Troubles Could Get a Lot Worse

from Barron’s
Few foreigners know China as intimately as Anne Stevenson-Yang does. She has spent the bulk of her professional life there since first arriving in 1985, working as a journalist, magazine publisher, and software executive, with stints in between...

China Puts the Brakes on Car Makers

William Boston and Yoko Kubota
Wall Street Journal
Global car makers sounded new warnings that demand in China, the auto market’s strongest growth engine in recent years, is cooling further and clouding prospects after several reported disappointing October sales in the country.

Reports

10.20.14

The Long Soft Fall in Chinese Growth

David Hoffman and Andrew Polk
David Hoffman
The Conference Board
As recently as the fourth quarter of 2013, there were few detractors from an optimistic assessment of China’s prospects to achieve a “soft landing” and continue to enjoy relatively stable growth in the 7 to 8 percent range for the next 10 years and...

China Ponders Slow-Growth Dilemma

Lingling Wei
Wall Street Journal
Leadership may have to sacrifice reform agenda to maintain 7.5% economic-growth target.

China’s Moment of Truth: Financial Reform or Growth?

Lingling Wei, Bob Davis and Mark Magnier
Wall Street Journal
With economy faring worse than thought, efforts to reform are colliding with the need to boost growth.

Video

08.12.14

Chinese Dreamers

Sharron Lovell & Tom Wang
A dream, in the truest sense, is a solo act. It can’t be created by committee or replicated en masse. Try as you might, you can’t compel your neighbor to conjure up the reverie that you envision. And therein lies the latent, uncertain energy in the...

Data Show Mixed Picture of China’s Economy

Mark Magnier
Wall Street Journal
China’s economy is struggling to find equilibrium, data released Friday shows, with government stimulus measures gaining traction last month while the vital housing market continues its swoon.

China Now Has More Millionaires Than Any Country but the U.S.

Jason Chow
Wall Street Journal
China had 2,378,000 millionaire households in 2013, a rise of 82% from the previous year and almost double the 1,240,000 millionaire households in Japan, according to the Boston Consulting Group Global Wealth 2014 report unveiled on Tuesday.

China Auto Sales Rise But Domestic Brands Lag

Joe McDonald
Sacramento Bee
Sales in the world's biggest auto market accelerated in May but domestic Chinese brands lagged and their market share shrank, an industry group reported Tuesday...

As China Booms, So Does Popular Unrest

Bruce Kennedy
CBS News
In the quarter-century since the crackdown in Beijing's Tiananmen Square, China's economy has thrived and presented the world with an historic milestone. But at what cost to its people?...

Finally, One Analyst Believes China Is Improving

Chris Wright
Forbes
In recent years, an upbeat note on the Chinese economy has been hard to find. Step forward Nomura, which on June 3 raised its GDP forecast for the second quarter from 7.1% to 7.4% and its full year forecast from 7.4% to 7.5%.

China’s Culture of Compliance Is Crippling the Country

Rana Foroohar
Time
This year, China will very likely overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. It has certainly become wealthy. But it has also become less free.

China Isn’t Overtaking America

Michael A. Levi
New York Times
Twenty-first century rivalry between the United States and China will be as much about economic might as military power.

Media

05.06.14

Chinese to the World: Ignore Our GDP

The U.S.-based World Bank grabbed everybody’s attention by announcing that China was poised to displace the United States as the world’s largest economy based on purchasing power. But a survey of the Chinese web shows people at home aren’t buying it...

Why India Will Soon Outpace China

James Gruber
Forbes
India’s decentralized, often chaotic economic model has been seen as inferior to China’s authoritarian, top-down model. A reappraisal of that view may soon be in order.

Conversation

04.30.14

Will China’s Economy Be #1 by Dec. 31? (And Does it Matter?)

William Adams, Damien Ma & more
On April 30, data released by the United Nations International Comparison Program showed China’s estimated 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate was twenty percent higher than was estimated in 2005. What does this mean? China's...

Why China’s Economy is Still Lagging Japan

Katie Holiday
The quality of growth in China's economy is questionable, which becomes evident when comparing it with Japan, analysts at Standard & Poors pointed out in a note...

Nobel Winner’s Frank Advice to China’s Leadership

Jonathan Schlefer
New York Times
Nobel Prize-winning economist A. Michael Spence argues that the Chinese must move beyond low-wage exports and “generate a fair amount of demand domestically, or they’ll fail.”

Blankfein Says China’s Expansion to Have ‘Huge Consequences’

Chitra Somayaji And Russell Ward
Bloomberg
“The China growth story is going to be the story of the next 30-40 years,” Blankfein said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Caixin Media

02.11.14

Local Governments Aim for Lower GDP Growth This Year

Most of the local governments that have announced their GDP targets for this year aimed lower than they did in 2013, citing the need to rebalance the economy and improve the quality of growth. Many missed their growth targets last year.The...

China’s Way to Happiness

Ian Johnson from New York Review of Books
Richard Madsen is one of the modern-day founders of the study of Chinese religion. A professor at the University of California San Diego, the seventy-three-year-old’s works include Morality and Power in a Chinese Village, China and the American...

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