February 2003

China’s economy is four times the size of Taiwan’s and apparently growing at a faster rate; that economic disparity between China and Taiwan could eventually lead to a military disparity as well. Nonetheless, even an informal U.S. security guarantee for Taiwan against nuclear-armed China is ill-advised. Taiwan is not strategically essential to America’s national security. Moreover, China has significant incentives to avoid attacking Taiwan. Perhaps the most crucial reason is that hostile behavior toward Taiwan would jeopardize China’s increasing economic linkage with the United States and other key countries. This paper assesses the China-Taiwan military balance and concludes that it is likely to remain stable, regardless of whether or not the U.S. moves to guarantee Taiwan’s security.