Bo Xilai and Reform: What Will Be the Impact of His Removal?

By Joseph Fewsmith on August 6, 2012

The unexpected flight of Chongqing’s Public Security head to the U.S. consulate in Chengdu in February started an unexpected sequence of events that led to the removal of Bo Xilai, the princeling head of the Chongqing party committee, and the subsequent decision to investigate him. Depending on the outcome of that party investigation, Bo could then be subject to civil proceedings (as is almost always the case). These events have disrupted what appeared to be the smooth transition planned for the 18th Party Congress later this fall. There has been much commentary on these events, and different observers look at the significance and impact of the Bo Xilai case on Chinese politics. Looking at Bo’s unique place in the Chinese political system and at the actions taken and commentary issued by the government in Beijing, this article concludes that Beijing is taking steps to narrow the case against Bo as much as possible, presenting it as a case of violating party discipline and the law. Although this makes sense in the short run, there may be ramifications of the case that will reverberate for a long time.

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He Jianan
Topics: 
Law
Politics
Keywords: 
Bo Xilai
Chinese Communist Party
18th Party Congress
Organization: 
China Leadership Monitor

Economic Uncertainty Fuels Political Misgivings

By Barry Naughton on August 6, 2012

Political uncertainty is inevitable as China prepares for this fall’s leadership transition. This year economic conditions are also unusually unpredictable. In particular, while China is undergoing an inevitable economic slowdown, few have a clear idea of how drastic the slowdown will be, or how painful the transition to a slower growth path will be. Facing these multiple uncertainties, Chinese politicians are trying to leave themselves as much flexibility as possible.

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He Jianan
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Economy
Politics
Keywords: 
Economic Slowdown
Organization: 
China Leadership Monitor

Shaping the Future—Part I: Domestic Developments in Taiwan

By Alan D. Romberg on August 6, 2012

Three main themes emerged in Taiwan politics in the wake of President Ma Ying-jeou’s convincing reelection victory in January. First, in a highly contentious election that portended continuing intra-party strife, the DPP chose its new chairman, former premier Su Tseng-chang. Second, the DPP and KMT ended up in a total impasse in the Legislative Yuan over the issue of allowing U.S. beef into Taiwan until the relevant UN body provided a face-saving way out. And third, Ma experienced a rapid and steep decline in his public support rate, and difficulty even within his own party over his policies on American beef, utility rates, gasoline prices, and taxes. In addition, while Ma pushed hard on various aspects of Taiwan’s medium- and long-term external economic ties, the short-term international economic situation in major trading partners such as the EU, the United States, Japan, and even China remained uncertain, and forecasts for Taiwan’s economic growth this year sagged. Unsurprisingly, public opinion polls on the island reflected a sense of pessimism about the prospects for near-term recovery. This essay addresses those issues.

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He Jianan
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Economy
Politics
Keywords: 
Taiwan
Ma Ying-jeou
Organization: 
China Leadership Monitor

Chinese Leadership and Elite Responses to the U.S. Pacific Pivot

By Michael D. Swaine on August 6, 2012

Over the past several years, the most significant overall U.S. foreign policy action of relevance to China has been the announcement and initial follow-through of the so-called Pacific pivot or “Rebalancing” of U.S. attention and resources to the Asia-Pacific. Many observers and officials in the United States, China, Asia, and elsewhere view this policy move as an important response not only to the growing overall significance of the region to American interests, but in particular to the challenges and opportunities presented by an increasingly powerful China. The Pacific Pivot has thus drawn considerable attention and levels of controversy in many quarters, and nowhere more so than in Beijing. This article takes a close look at Beijing’s reactions to Washington’s increased stress on Asia, including its assessments of the perceived implications of this policy shift for the region and for China in particular.

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He Jianan
Topics: 
Military
Politics
Keywords: 
U.S.-China Relations
Pacific Pivot
Organization: 
China Leadership Monitor

Huawei: The Company That Spooked the World

By Unattributed on August 4, 2012

BANBURY, a little English town best known for a walk-on part in a nursery rhyme and as the eponymous origin of a fruitcake, is an unlikely fulcrum for the balance of power in the world of telecoms. But the “Cyber Security Evaluation Centre” set up there by Huawei, a Chinese telecoms giant, in 2010 marks a new way of persuading purchasers, and the British government, that equipment from the manufacturer that runs it can be trusted. It operates in close co-operation with GCHQ, Britain’s signals-intelligence agency, located conveniently just over the Cotswolds in Cheltenham. Its security-cleared staff, some of whom used to work for GCHQ, are responsible for making sure that the networking equipment and software that the Chinese firm wishes to sell to British telecoms companies are reliable, will only do what customers want them to do and cannot be exploited by cybercriminals or foreign spies—including Chinese ones.

 
Business, Economy, Military, Technology
Telecommunications, People’s Liberation Army, Huawei, U.S.-China Relations

Bo Xilai: The Unanswered Questions

By Perry Link on August 3, 2012

The Chinese Communist Party has always put great emphasis on smooth surfaces, maintaining political “face” through a decorous exterior. Men at the top dye their hair black and every strand must be in place. But sometimes there are cracks in the smoothness and outsiders are given a glimpse into the mafia-like world that lies behind it.

 
Law, Politics
Bo Xilai, Party Politics, Corruption, Crime

The Rehabilitation of Pearl Buck

By Peter Conn on August 3, 2012

In the summer of 1934, Pearl Buck boarded a ship in Shanghai that was bound for America. She was forty-two years old, and had lived for thirty-four of those years in China, mostly in cities along the Yangzi River. Pearl and her first husband, John Lossing Buck, both taught at Nanking University, and lived in a house on the campus. In a small third-floor room, stealing hours from teaching, housework, and the care of her mentally disabled daughter, Buck wrote her first published work.

Ideas Will Determine China's Future

By Zhang Weiying on August 3, 2012

Even as China's economy gallops ahead, its society is facing increasingly sharp contradictions. Income and regional inequalities are expanding, official corruption is rampant, access to medical care and education are uneven, and environmental degradation is worsening. As a result, discontent among the Chinese people has increased even as their living standards have improved.

Arts, Business, Economy, Society
Innovation

The Perils of Private Enterprise: There Was Blood

on August 3, 2012

A visitor to Jingbian county in northern Shaanxi province finds at its heart a thriving oil town in the grip of a state-owned company, Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum. Yanchang’s building, 12 storeys high, towers over the low-slung town. The company is by far Jingbian’s largest employer and taxpayer. More than 3,000 of Yanchang’s yellow and red nodding donkeys dot the countryside, pumping 7m barrels of oil a year. This region in north-western China was known for impoverished peasants dwelling in caves hewn out of the deep, compacted soils of the Loess plateau. In a decade Jingbian has become a booming company town.

Business, Politics, Society
Oil Drilling, Shaanxi, Private Enterprise, Rule of Law, Property Rights