Arthur R. Kroeber is Managing Director of GaveKal Dragonomics, an independent global economic research firm, and Editor of its journal, China Economic Quarterly. He is a non-resident senior fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center, where his research focuses on China’s engagement with global economic institutions. Mr Kroeber is based in Beijing, where he has lived since 2002.

Before joining GaveKal Dragonomics, Mr Kroeber worked for fifteen years as a financial journalist and economic analyst in China, Taiwan, and India. He has written for Foreign Policy, The Economist, The Far Eastern Economic Review, Fortune, and Wired and is a contributor to the opinion pages of The Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post. He is a member of the National Committee on United States-China Relations, the Fernand Braudel Institute of International Economics, and the board of the Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business at Indiana University.

Last Updated: March 16, 2015

Conversation

07.08.16

Why Is There So Much Talk of China’s Bleeding Money?

Arthur R. Kroeber & Thilo Hanemann
China has seen its foreign reserves depleted for months, but economists don’t agree about why: Is it because Chinese people are buying offshore assets, such as real estate? Because Chinese companies are paying down their foreign debt? Or both? Or is...

Sinica Podcast

06.20.16

Arthur Kroeber vs. the Conventional Wisdom

Kaiser Kuo, Jeremy Goldkorn & more
In this episode of Sinica, we present an in-depth interview with Arthur Kroeber, the founding partner and head of research for Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent global economic research firm, and the editor-in-chief of its journal, China Economic...

Conversation

01.27.16

Is George Soros Right that China’s Headed for a Hard Landing?

Arthur R. Kroeber, Stephen S. Roach & more
On Tuesday in an article headlined, “Declaring War on China’s Currency? Ha ha,” the People’s Daily attacked billionaire investor George Soros for suggesting he might short the renminbi. The Chinese currency has dropped 5.7 percent since August when...

Conversation

12.03.15

Does the Renminbi’s Elevation to Global Currency Matter?

Arthur R. Kroeber & Zhiwu Chen
On November 30, the International Monetary Fund approved the Chinese renminbi, also known as the yuan, as one of the world’s leading currencies, underscoring the country’s rising global financial importance. What’s behind the decision and what...

Conversation

11.02.15

How Far Have China’s Economic Reforms Come over the Past Year?

Houze Song & Arthur R. Kroeber
As the Chinese Communist Party leadership wrapped up its Fifth Plenum, the meeting at which the Party’s leadership set the Five Year Plan that will shape economic policy through 2020, what progress has been made on the “comprehensive deepening” of...

Conversation

10.06.15

What Will the TPP Mean for China?

Barry Naughton, Arthur R. Kroeber & more
On Monday, the U.S., Japan, and ten other countries concluded negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP—the largest regional trade accord in history. If approved, the agreement will set new terms for the nearly $28 trillion in trade and...

Conversation

08.25.15

Is the Bloom Off the Rose of China’s Economic Miracle?

Arthur R. Kroeber, David Schlesinger & more
On Monday, August 24, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 8.5 percent, its second such steep fall since late July, and its worst since 2007. On Tuesday, stocks fell an additional 7.6 percent. The steep slide translates into more than $4 trillion in...

Conversation

07.29.15

Can Xi Jinping Turn China’s Economy Around?

Arthur R. Kroeber, George Chen & more
On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 8.5 percent, erasing all of the gains it had made in an extraordinary run-up this year. The drop was the second 8.5 percent drop in recent weeks. The first such drop (the occasion for the Conversation...

Viewpoint

07.12.15

Making Sense of China’s Market Mess

Arthur R. Kroeber
Nearly two years ago China’s Communist Party released a major economic reform blueprint, whose signature phrase was that market forces would be given a “decisive role” in resource allocation. That Third Plenum Decision and other policy...

Conversation

03.11.15

Is China Really Cracking Up?

Suisheng Zhao, Arthur R. Kroeber & more
On March 7, The Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece by David Shambaugh arguing that “the endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun...and it has progressed further than many think.” Shambaugh laid out a variety of signs he believes...

Viewpoint

12.11.14

Here Is Xi’s China: Get Used To It

Arthur R. Kroeber from China Economic Quarterly
The prevailing mood among China-watchers in 2014 was one of anxiety and skepticism. The year began in the shadow of Chinese assertiveness in the East and South China Seas. Economic concerns quickly took over: by February the property market seemed...

Conversation

09.12.14

Is a Trade War with China Looming?

Arthur R. Kroeber & Donald Clarke
As Alibaba gets ready to sell shares on Wall Street, U.S. investors will be focused on Chinese companies getting a fair shake here in America even as some big U.S. brand names (Microsoft, Chrysler, et al) are being shaken down by China's newly...