Arthur R. Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent economic research firm focusing on China and its global impact, with offices in Beijing and Hong Kong. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, Kroeber worked for 15 years as a financial journalist and economic analyst in China, Taiwan, and India. He is an Adjunct Professor of Economics at the New York University Stern School of Business, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. The second edition of his book China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know was published by Oxford University Press in 2020.
Last Updated: February 16, 2024
Viewpoint
07.12.15
Making Sense of China’s Market Mess
Nearly two years ago China’s Communist Party released a major economic reform blueprint, whose signature phrase was that market forces would be given a “decisive role” in resource allocation. That Third Plenum Decision and other policy...
Conversation
03.11.15
Is China Really Cracking Up?
On March 7, The Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece by David Shambaugh arguing that “the endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun...and it has progressed further than many think.” Shambaugh laid out a variety of signs he believes...
Viewpoint
12.11.14
Here Is Xi’s China: Get Used To It
from China Economic Quarterly
The prevailing mood among China-watchers in 2014 was one of anxiety and skepticism. The year began in the shadow of Chinese assertiveness in the East and South China Seas. Economic concerns quickly took over: by February the property market seemed...
Conversation
09.12.14
Is a Trade War with China Looming?
As Alibaba gets ready to sell shares on Wall Street, U.S. investors will be focused on Chinese companies getting a fair shake here in America even as some big U.S. brand names (Microsoft, Chrysler, et al) are being shaken down by China's newly...
Conversation
04.30.14
Will China’s Economy Be #1 by Dec. 31? (And Does it Matter?)
On April 30, data released by the United Nations International Comparison Program showed China’s estimated 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate was twenty percent higher than was estimated in 2005. What does this mean? China's...
Conversation
10.16.13
Uncomfortable Bedfellows: How Much Does China Need America Now?
Bill Bishop:The D.C. dysfunction puts China in a difficult place. Any financial markets turmoil that occurs because of a failure of Congress to do its job could harm China’s economy, and especially its exports. The accumulation of massive foreign-...
Conversation
07.30.13
Is Business in China Getting Riskier, Or Are Multinationals Taking More Risks?
Arthur Kroeber:The environment for foreign companies in China has been getting steadily tougher since 2006, when the nation came to the end of a five-year schedule of market-opening measures it pledged as the price of admission to the World Trade...
Conversation
07.23.13
What Would a Hard Landing in China Mean for the World?
Barry Naughton:Paul Krugman in a recent post (“How Much Should We Worry About a China Shock?” The New York Times, July 20, 2013) tells us NOT to worry about the impact of a slowing China on global exports, but to be worried, very worried about the...
Conversation
07.16.13
What’s the Senate’s Beef with China’s Play for American Pork?
Last week the U.S. Senate held hearings to question the CEO of meat-producer Smithfield Farms, about the proposed $4.7 billion sale of the Virginia-based company to Shuanghui International, China’s largest pork producer. The sale is under review by...
Conversation
06.21.13
How Should the World Prepare for a Slower China?
Get Ready for a Slower ChinaThe recent gyrations on the Chinese interbank market underscore that the chief risk to global growth now comes from China. Make no mistake: credit policy will tighten substantially in the coming months, as the government...
Sinica Podcast
12.02.11
The Bears Are Back in Town
from Sinica Podcast
Falling housing prices, soaring inflation, and an export market peering over the brink of what seems a cataclysmic abyss. If you’ve been following the economic news lately, you can be forgiven for being overwhelmed by the chorus of bearish voices...
Sinica Podcast
05.01.11
Nouriel Roubini Gets It in the A** in China
from Sinica Podcast
China Doomerism, the once familiar retreat of a chummy pantheon of economic cranks, recently went mainstream with Nouriel Roubini’s pronouncement that the Chinese economy is wrestling with over-investment and his prediction that it will likely come...