How a U.S.-China War Could Begin

Week
President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping sat down for their first superpower summit in Florida earlier this month, and by all accounts, things went well. Still, it is time to consider the sheer magnitude of problems dividing America and China.

Wife of Detained Activist from Taiwan Is Barred from China

Chris Horton
New York Times
China’s Ministry of Public Security has barred the wife of a detained Taiwan-born rights activist from flying to Beijing on Monday, adding to the drama surrounding the man’s disappearance after he entered China more than three weeks ago.

South China Sea: Duterte Orders Philippines Military to Occupy Islands

James Griffiths and Chieu Luu
CNN
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte said Thursday he has ordered military personnel to occupy all Philippines-claimed islands in the disputed South China Sea.

Viewpoint

04.05.17

No Winners or Losers, Please

Paul Gewirtz
Who will be the winner of the upcoming Trump-Xi summit? My answer: That’s a dangerous—and wrongheaded—question to focus on. Yes, we want the U.S. to win, but the U.S.-China relationship must be played and judged as a long game.The present situation...

China Says It Has Detained Rights Activist from Taiwan

Chris Buckley and Chris Horton
New York Times
The detention adds to signs of an intensified clampdown on outsiders working with China’s beleaguered rights lawyers and groups.

Taiwan Democracy Activist Said To Be Detained in China

Fox News
People close to a Taiwanese pro-democracy activist say he went missing nine days ago during a visit to the Chinese territory of Macau and appears to be in Chinese custody.

Why Is Spain in the Middle of a Spat between China and Taiwan?

Kevin Ponniah
BBC
Spain could soon become the first European Union country to extradite Taiwanese criminal suspects to China, instead of their home island.

Taiwan ‘Targeted by Mainland China’s Top Medium-Range Missiles’

Nectar Gan
South China Morning Post
Deployment of DF-16 missiles part of the increased military intimidation of Taiwan by Beijing, according to island’s defense minister

China Raising Pressure on Taiwan, Gently

Ralph Jennings
Voice of America
China is slowly tightening its grip on self-ruled Taiwan to make it break a nearly year-old political deadlock, but it’s avoiding any tough measures that it can’t reverse if relations improve, analysts say.

Taiwan Plans Military Spending Surge to Counter Rising China

Adela Lin and Ting Shi
Bloomberg
Taiwan plans to raise military spending by about 50 percent next year as President Tsai Ing-wen attempts to offset China’s growing might and support the local defense industry.

Rather Than Talk to Taiwan, China Sends in the Spies

Chris Horton
Quartz
While spy scandals are not uncommon in Taiwan, the news has heightened concerns that the island is inadequately prepared to deal with Chinese espionage at a time when relations across the Taiwan Strait are at their lowest point in years.

China Drills Again Near Taiwan as Island Warns of Threat

Ben Blanchard and J.R. Wu
Reuters
Chinese jets and warships carried out exercises near Taiwan and into the Western Pacific on Thursday, as the self-ruled island's defense minister warned of a growing threat from its giant neighbor.

‘The President Always Gets Something’: Spicer Suggests Trump Gained Concession from China

Tom Phillips
Guardian
Before taking power Trump hinted he might reverse the US’s stance on Taiwan but later back-pedaled, prompting speculation he had capitulated to Beijing

New Gambia Government Says Committed to ‘One China’ Policy

Reuters
Gambia’s new government has endorsed the “one China” policy and said it would not establish any official relations or contacts with Taiwan, continuing a policy adopted in March 2016 by the government of former leader Yahya Jammeh.

Fraud Case, Holiday Dispute Further Divide Old Rivals China, Taiwan

Ralph Jennings
Voice of America
Relations between old rivals China and Taiwan have been shaken again over a foreign extradition case and Beijing’s re-interpretation of a Taiwanese political holiday, stalling any prospects for dialogue or cooperation.

New Chinese Missile Upgrade Likely Designed with Taiwan in Its Crosshairs

Bruce Dorminey
Forbes
Earlier this month, the state-run English-language newspaper China Daily reported on the most recent public displays of the People’s Republic of China’s DF-16, designed, in large part, as a potential offensive weapon against the island nation of...

Trump Will Honor ‘One China’ Policy

Paul Haenle & Evan Medeiros from Carnegie China
President Trump agreed to honor the U.S. “one China” policy in his first phone call with President Xi Jinping since taking office, providing the basis for bilateral relations to move forward. Shortly after the February 9 call, Paul Haenle spoke with...

Viewpoint

02.10.17

Taiwan Needs to Hear Trump Say ‘Democracy’

William Kazer
President Trump has sent conflicting signals on Taiwan, first suggesting cozier relations with the self-ruled island and then walking that back to reassure China.In a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, he pledged no change to...

Conversation

02.10.17

Did Xi Just Outmaneuver Trump?

M. Taylor Fravel, Isaac Stone Fish & more
On the evening of February 9, U.S. President Donald Trump had what the White House described in a terse readout as a “lengthy” and “cordial” telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping. That alone is newsworthy, as the...

How Taiwan Became a Divisive Political Issue in South Africa

Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden & more
South Africa’s opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), now sees the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party’s close ties to China as a vulnerability that the DA aims to exploit. Evidence of this new strategy came in December when the DA...

Can Donald Trump Break Beijing’s ‘One China’ Obsession?

Chow Chung-yan
South China Morning Post
Through force and diplomacy, many renowned figures have tried to divide the country, and all have failed. Still, the new U.S. president seems to want the issue back on the table and, if so, he has a steep, historic hill to climb

Trump Inauguration: Taiwan Delegation Could ‘Disturb Sino-U.S. Relations’

Benjamin Haas
Guardian
Taiwanese delegation will attend new president’s swearing-in, prompting Beijing to warn it could ‘disturb or undermine Sino-U.S. relations’

Taiwan Carries out Drills amid Rising Fears of Chinese Invasion

Nicola Smith and Tom Phillips
Guardian
The island’s armed forces test combat readiness, amid deteriorating relations between Beijing and Taipei

Books

01.11.17

Taiwan’s China Dilemma

Syaru Shirley Lin
China and Taiwan share one of the world’s most complex international relationships. Although similar cultures and economic interests have promoted an explosion of economic ties between them since the late 1980s, these ties have not led to an improved political relationship, let alone progress toward the unification that both governments once claimed to seek. In addition, Taiwan’s recent Sunflower Movement succeeded in obstructing deeper economic ties with China. Why has Taiwan’s policy toward China been so inconsistent?Taiwan’s China Dilemma explains the divergence between the development of economic and political relations across the Taiwan Strait through the interplay of national identity and economic interests. Using primary sources, opinion surveys, and interviews with Taiwanese opinion leaders, Syaru Shirley Lin paints a vivid picture of one of the most unsettled and dangerous relationships in the contemporary world, and illustrates the growing backlash against economic liberalization and regional economic integration around the world. —Stanford University Press{chop}

Taiwan Scrambles Jets, Navy as China Aircraft Carrier Enters Taiwan Strait

Reuters
Taiwan scrambled jets and navy ships on Wednesday as a group of Chinese warships, led by its sole aircraft carrier, sailed through the Taiwan Strait

Against China’s Objections, Ted Cruz and Texas Governor Meet with Taiwanese President

Amy B Wang
Washington Post
Against the objections of Chinese officials, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Texas on Sunday during her much-scrutinized overseas trip. 

Taiwan Tries to Keep Central American Allies Away from China

Ben Bland and James Fredrick
Financial Times
Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen heads to four Central American countries this weekend in an effort to stop more of the self-governing island’s remaining diplomatic allies defecting to China. 

Taiwan Announces U.S. Itinerary for President, Upsetting China

J.R. Wu
Reuters
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen will transit through Houston and San Francisco during her January visit to allies in Latin America

Power Plays Across the First Island Chain: China’s Lone Carrier Group Has a Busy December

Ankit Panda
Diplomat
For the first time, China’s lone carrier entered the Western Pacific. What does the Chinese Navy have in mind?

Chinese Warships Enter South China Sea Near Taiwan in Show of Force

Reuters
Guardian
Beijing’s only aircraft carrier cruises past Taiwan’s Pratas Islands in an exercise state media said showed the country’s improving combat capabilities

China Resumes Ties with São Tomé, Which Turned Away from Taiwan

Associated Press
New York Times
Beijing suspended its relationship with São Tomé in 1997 after the African island nation established diplomatic ties with Taiwan

Taiwan’s President to Visit U.S. Despite Objections from China

Guardian
Planned trip causes speculation in Washington and Taiwan that Tsai Ing-wen may meet Donald Trump in person

Trump Aide Plays Down Prospect of Upending 'One China' Policy

Reuters
CNBC
Trump aide Reince Priebus: "We are not suggesting that we're revisiting 'one China' policy right now,"

Taiwan is Both Exhilarated and Unnerved by Trump’s China’s Remarks

Javier Hernandez and Amy Qin
New York Times
What does it mean for one’s homeland to be put on the table by Mr. Trump, in negotiations with China’s leaders, who are not known for making concessions easily?

If Donald Trump Pushes, How China Could Push Back

Jane Perlez
New York Times
Here are five ways the Chinese could make life difficult for a Trump administration

Beijing Concerned by Trump Questioning ‘One China’ Policy on Taiwan

Josh Chin
Wall Street Journal
President-elect Donald Trump questioned U.S. support for the idea that mainland China and Taiwan are part of ‘one China’

What Taiwan’s Leader Sees in Donald Trump

Nick Frisch
New Yorker
Taiwanese President Tsai's call to President-elect Trump, which riled both Washington and Beijing, suggests a hidden streak of boldness

Taiwan Feels Forgotten. But Not By Trump.

Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian
New York Times
Despite facing a sober future, Taiwanese will continue to celebrate what they see as an overdue recognition of their hard-won existence

Conversation

12.05.16

Should Washington Recalibrate Relations with Taipei?

Yu-Jie Chen, J. Michael Cole & more
On Friday, Donald Trump shocked the China-watching world when news broke that he had spoken on the phone to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. The call was remarkable not for its content—Tsai’s office said she told Trump she hoped the United States “...

After the Call: Does Taiwan Have a Plan for the Trump Years?

Ankit Panda
Diplomat
What is Taiwan looking for from Donald Trump?

China Says Trump Clear About Taiwan, in Touch with His Team

Ben Blanchard and Roberta Rampton
Reuters
"The whole world knows about the Chinese government's position on the Taiwan issue. I think President-elect Trump and his team are also clear"

Why Singapore’s Taiwan Ties Anger China

Ben Bland and Jeevan Vasagar
Financial Times
Seizure of armored vehicles comes as Beijing seeks to isolate Taipei

China Tries to “Divide and Rule” Taiwan by Befriending Pro-Beijing Towns

J.R. Wu
Reuters
Taiwanese local officials, representing China-friendly Nationalist Party controlled counties, were promised greater tourism and agricultural ties

As Tensions Over Taiwan’s National Identity Reignite, Mainland Tourists Avoid the Island

Jessica Meyers
Los Angeles Times
Mainland tourism has dropped 20% since June, weeks after President Tsai took power and declined to endorse the One-China notion

Taiwan President Tsai: Taiwan Won’t Succumb to China’s Pressure

Charles Hutzler and Jenny Hsu
WSJ: China Real Time Report
In an interview with WSJ, Ms.Tsai discussed her first four months in office

Conversation

08.25.16

Could China Now Defeat the United States in a Battle Over the South China Sea or Taiwan?

Joel Wuthnow, Phillip C. Saunders & more
Chinese Communist Party Secretary Xi Jinping kicked off the latest round of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) reforms at a September 3, 2015 military parade. The reforms could result in a leaner, more combat-effective PLA. This could create new...

Kenya Angers Taiwan by Deporting More Fraud Suspects to China

Austin Ramzy
New York Times
The deportations follow similar ones in April, when 45 people from Taiwan, accused of being part of the same fraud ring, were sent from Kenya to China.

Interpreting the South China Sea Tribunal Ruling

Paul Haenle & Elizabeth Economy from Carnegie China
International responses to the tribunal’s ruling in the South China Sea have raised questions about the stability of the Asia-Pacific region and what roles the United States and China have in it. In this podcast, Paul Haenle and Elizabeth Economy...

Features

07.12.16

You Ask How Deeply I Love You

Anna Beth Keim
“Back when I was a soldier on Kinmen, around 1975, the water demons still sometimes killed people,” Xu Shifu (Master Xu) said. The laugh-lines at the corners of his eyes were not visible now, even in the white fluorescent light shining down from the...

Taiwanese Scam Suspects in Cambodia to be Expelled to China

Asahi Shimbun
Rights activists and Taiwan say the plan reflects the great influence Beijing exercises over Cambodia through aid and investment.

China Axes Taiwanese Children's Choir Trip

Channel NewsAsia
China has axed a visit by a popular Taiwanese children's choir after they sang the national anthem at the inauguration of the island's new president.

Taiwan Bars Ex-President From Visiting Hong Kong

Austin Ramzy
New York Times
After leaving office, travel is limited for three years for high-level officials....

China Rebuffs Taiwan President's Offer on Democracy

Ben Blanchard
Reuters
President Tsai Ing-wen made the offer via Facebook on Saturday in a post about the June 4 anniversary of China's crackdown on Tiananmen Square Protest.

Taiwan President Takes Cautious Line on China at Inauguration

Austin Ramzy
New York Times
Tsai Ing-wen called on China to look beyond the divisions of history for the benefit of people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

China-Taiwan Relations To Take A Holiday Under New President

Ralph Jennings
Forbes
To seek peace with China, Tsai would need to make her first dialogue proposal that Beijing might accept.

China Watchdog Clamps Down on Nationalist Tabloid

Financial Times
China rebukes nationalist Chinese tabloid Global Times over an online poll ahead of Taiwan’s presidential inauguration and dubbing Donald Trump a “buffoon.”

2016 Elections in a Changing Asia-Pacific

Paul Haenle & Douglas H. Paal from Carnegie China
With Tsai Ing-wen taking office in Taipei next week and the U.S. presidential election approaching, new players will be taking the reins in the Asia-Pacific. In this podcast with Paul Haenle, Douglas Paal discusses the future of U.S.-China relations...

China, Taiwan Add Tourists to Their Squabbles

Ben Blanchard and Faith Hung
Reuters
"China is using its tourists as a bargaining chip against Taiwan's new government," said Lu Shiao-ya, chief of the National Joint Association of Tourist Buses.

Beijing Tipped to Ramp up International Pressure on Taipei amid Tsai's Silence on Cross-Strait Consensus

Lawrence Chung Lawrence Chung
South China Morning Post
Beijing will continue to press for its interpretation of “one China” principle.